North Carolina at Clemson NCAA, Week 3, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 19, 2026 at 4:00 PM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Clemson by 13.1 points, giving them a 77% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 39.1 combined points, with Clemson at 26.0 and North Carolina at 13.1. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Clemson's margin lands between -9.7 and +35.2 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Clemson -13.1 / North Carolina +13.1 Moneyline: Clemson -342 / North Carolina +342 Win probability: Clemson 77.3% / North Carolina 22.7% Projected total: 39.1 points Last recalculated: August 30, 2026 at 6:01 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Clemson: 1577.0, North Carolina: 1448.2 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Clemson North Carolina ----------------- ------- -------------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 travel_fatigue +4.0 +1.5 ncaa_efficiency +0.0 +0.0 blowout_hangover +0.0 +0.0 home_field_vector +2.1 -- consecutive_road -- -15.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: North Carolina 13.1 -- Clemson 26.0 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th -------------- ---- ---- ----- ----- ----- Clemson margin -9.7 +1.1 +12.9 +24.7 +35.2 Total points 17.4 27.6 39.1 50.9 60.7 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: CLEMSON Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Christopher Vizzina QB Passing yards 173.5 89-358 Pass attempts 26.7 18-50 Completions 16.8 10-34 Passing TDs 0.90 59% 1+, 23% 2+ Rushing yards 9.9 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Bryant Wesco Jr. WR Receiving yards 75.1 39-110 Receptions 4.7 2-7 Receiving TDs 0.78 54% 1+, 18% 2+ T.J. Moore WR Receiving yards 68.8 33-109 Receptions 4.1 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.39 32% 1+, 6% 2+ Chris Johnson Jr. RB Rushing yards 45.4 4-86 Carries 7.7 2-10 Rushing TDs 0.35 30% 1+, 5% 2+ Receiving yards 15.5 -- Receptions 2.2 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.12 11% 1+ Tristan Smith WR Receiving yards 35.5 -- Receptions 3.2 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.10 9% 1+ Christian Bentancur TE Receiving yards 32.1 8-54 Receptions 2.7 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.35 30% 1+, 5% 2+ Gideon Davidson RB Rushing yards 30.2 -- Carries 8.5 3-12 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 17.3 -- Receptions 2.6 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Olsen Patt-Henry TE Receiving yards 21.4 -- Receptions 2.2 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Sammy Brown LB Tackles 8.8 6-12 Sacks 0.44 36% 1+, 7% 2+ Corey Myrick S Tackles 7.4 5-10 Jahiem Lawson DE Sacks 0.50 39% 1+, 9% 2+ NORTH CAROLINA Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Billy Edwards Jr. QB Passing yards 205.0 121-341 Pass attempts 24.6 16-39 Completions 14.5 8-23 Passing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Jordan Shipp WR Receiving yards 72.9 37-106 Receptions 5.3 4-7 Receiving TDs 0.55 42% 1+, 11% 2+ Demon June RB Rushing yards 39.2 -- Carries 8.7 3-12 Rushing TDs 0.11 10% 1+ Receiving yards 20.2 1-49 Receptions 2.7 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.13 12% 1+ Trech Kekahuna WR Rushing yards 25.8 -- Rushing TDs 0.14 13% 1+ Receiving yards 39.0 3-73 Receptions 3.2 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Benjamin Hall RB Rushing yards 37.4 -- Carries 9.4 4-14 Rushing TDs 0.11 10% 1+ Receiving yards 10.7 -- Receptions 2.1 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Jelani Thurman TE Receiving yards 27.8 4-64 Receptions 2.4 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Nathan Leacock WR Receiving yards 23.5 -- Receptions 1.8 -- Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Jordan Washington TE Receiving yards 20.2 -- Receptions 1.6 -- Receiving TDs 0.15 14% 1+ Derek McDonald LB Tackles 5.7 3-11 Melkart Abou Jaoude DL Tackles 4.5 3-6 Sacks 1.19 70% 1+, 33% 2+ Xavier Lewis DL Sacks 0.50 39% 1+, 9% 2+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Clemson recent form: 3-2 over last 5 games North Carolina recent form: 2-3 over last 5 games Head-to-head history: Season Away Home Winner ------ ------- ------- ------ 2025 CLEM 38 UNC 10 CLEM 2023 UNC 20 CLEM 31 CLEM ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10215