Eastern Michigan at Wisconsin NCAA, Week 3, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 19, 2026 at 4:30 PM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Wisconsin by 7.1 points, giving them a 66% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 29.8 combined points, with Wisconsin at 18.2 and Eastern Michigan at 11.3. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Wisconsin's margin lands between -15.1 and +28.9 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Wisconsin -7.1 / Eastern Michigan +7.1 Moneyline: Wisconsin -195 / Eastern Michigan +195 Win probability: Wisconsin 66.1% / Eastern Michigan 33.9% Projected total: 29.8 points Last recalculated: August 30, 2026 at 6:01 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Wisconsin: 1473.6, Eastern Michigan: 1427.8 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Wisconsin Eastern Michigan ----------------- --------- ---------------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 travel_fatigue +3.3 +3.1 ncaa_efficiency +0.0 +0.0 blowout_hangover +0.0 +0.0 home_field_vector +4.8 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Eastern Michigan 11.3 -- Wisconsin 18.2 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th ---------------- ----- ---- ---- ----- ----- Wisconsin margin -15.1 -4.6 +7.0 +18.5 +28.9 Total points 7.7 18.2 29.8 40.7 51.1 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: WISCONSIN Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ---------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Colton Joseph QB Passing yards 187.5 103-260 Pass attempts 25.5 17-31 Completions 14.8 8-19 Passing TDs 1.59 80% 1+, 47% 2+ Rushing yards 53.2 13-103 Rushing TDs 1.10 67% 1+, 30% 2+ Abu Sama III RB Rushing yards 77.9 37-148 Carries 11.9 6-20 Rushing TDs 0.56 43% 1+, 11% 2+ Receiving yards 13.2 -- Receptions 2.4 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Darrion Dupree RB Rushing yards 61.2 20-118 Carries 10.1 4-16 Rushing TDs 0.37 31% 1+, 5% 2+ Receiving yards 18.7 -- Receptions 2.5 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Shamar Rigby WR Receiving yards 40.1 4-68 Receptions 2.9 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.15 14% 1+ Malachi Coleman WR Receiving yards 31.7 -- Receptions 1.3 2-2 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Jacob Harris TE Receiving yards 23.4 -- Receptions 2.2 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.69 50% 1+, 15% 2+ Grant Stec TE Receiving yards 20.7 -- Receptions 1.9 0-2 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Chris Brooks Jr. WR Receiving yards 18.5 -- Receptions 1.7 -- Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Cooper Catalano LB Tackles 6.7 4-13 Mason Posa LB Tackles 6.6 4-12 Sacks 0.44 36% 1+, 7% 2+ Sebastian Cheeks LB Sacks 0.38 31% 1+, 6% 2+ EASTERN MICHIGAN Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds --------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Noah Kim QB Passing yards 231.2 147-299 Pass attempts 33.5 25-38 Completions 20.7 14-24 Passing TDs 1.93 86% 1+, 57% 2+ Rushing yards 15.8 -- Rushing TDs 0.52 40% 1+, 10% 2+ Harold Mack WR Receiving yards 55.7 20-125 Receptions 3.7 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.37 31% 1+, 5% 2+ Nick Devereaux WR Receiving yards 53.5 18-98 Receptions 3.6 2-6 Receiving TDs 1.10 67% 1+, 30% 2+ Joey Mattord RB Rushing yards 34.0 -- Carries 7.4 2-10 Rushing TDs 0.27 24% 1+ Receiving yards 13.5 -- Receptions 2.1 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Benson Prosper WR Rushing yards 14.3 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 30.8 -- Receptions 3.0 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Tanner Lemaster TE Receiving yards 19.7 -- Receptions 2.3 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Joshua Long TE Receiving yards 19.5 -- Receptions 3.3 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.14 13% 1+ Bryce Llewellyn DB Tackles 7.6 6-10 Zach Mowchan LB Tackles 6.4 4-11 Quincy Byas DL Sacks 0.38 31% 1+, 6% 2+ Barry Manning LB Sacks 0.25 22% 1+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Wisconsin recent form: 2-3 over last 5 games Eastern Michigan recent form: 3-2 over last 5 games ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10216