Troy at Missouri NCAA, Week 3, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 19, 2026 at 4:45 PM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Missouri by 10.4 points, giving them a 72% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 35.1 combined points, with Missouri at 22.8 and Troy at 12.4. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Missouri's margin lands between -11.7 and +32.6 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Missouri -10.4 / Troy +10.4 Moneyline: Missouri -264 / Troy +264 Win probability: Missouri 72.5% / Troy 27.5% Projected total: 35.1 points Last recalculated: August 30, 2026 at 6:01 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Missouri: 1570.7, Troy: 1492.1 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Missouri Troy ----------------- -------- ----- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 travel_fatigue +4.0 +2.5 ncaa_efficiency +0.0 +0.0 blowout_hangover +0.0 +0.0 home_field_vector +8.4 -- consecutive_road -- -15.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Troy 12.4 -- Missouri 22.8 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th --------------- ----- ---- ----- ----- ----- Missouri margin -11.7 -1.4 +10.3 +22.0 +32.6 Total points 13.6 23.8 35.2 46.4 56.4 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: MISSOURI Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ----------------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Austin Simmons QB Passing yards 154.2 70-297 Pass attempts 22.2 14-38 Completions 13.4 7-23 Passing TDs 0.69 50% 1+, 15% 2+ Rushing yards 18.3 -- Rushing TDs 0.22 19% 1+ Ahmad Hardy RB Rushing yards 79.6 38-174 Carries 14.7 9-21 Rushing TDs 0.89 59% 1+, 22% 2+ Receiving yards 10.4 -- Receptions 1.9 0-2 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Jamal Roberts RB Rushing yards 58.4 17-102 Carries 10.4 5-15 Rushing TDs 0.38 32% 1+, 6% 2+ Receiving yards 16.3 -- Receptions 2.3 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Caleb Goodie WR Receiving yards 52.4 17-89 Receptions 3.3 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.12 11% 1+ Donovan Olugbode WR Receiving yards 48.2 13-76 Receptions 3.2 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.24 22% 1+ Cayden Lee WR Receiving yards 45.1 10-78 Receptions 3.5 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Brett Norfleet TE Receiving yards 22.0 -- Receptions 2.8 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.23 20% 1+ Jordon Harris TE Receiving yards 17.6 -- Receptions 1.4 2-2 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Robert Woodyard Jr. LB Tackles 6.2 4-9 Nicholas Rodriguez LB Tackles 6.0 3-10 Kensley Louidor-Faustin S Sacks 0.12 12% 1+ Mark Hensley DT Sacks 0.12 12% 1+ TROY Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds -------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Goose Crowder QB Passing yards 165.7 81-291 Pass attempts 27.2 18-43 Completions 16.4 10-27 Passing TDs 1.04 65% 1+, 28% 2+ Rushing yards 4.5 -- Rushing TDs 0.15 14% 1+ Jordan Lovett RB Rushing yards 27.5 -- Carries 9.3 4-16 Rushing TDs 0.16 15% 1+ Receiving yards 11.2 -- Receptions 2.2 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Jackson Worley TE Receiving yards 12.3 -- Receptions 1.6 -- Receiving TDs 0.18 17% 1+ Justin Powe S Tackles 6.7 4-9 TJ Thompson LB Tackles 3.5 0-5 Donnie Smith DB Sacks 1.00 63% 1+, 26% 2+ Ty Clemons DT Sacks 0.25 22% 1+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Missouri recent form: 2-3 over last 5 games Troy recent form: 2-3 over last 5 games ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10217