NC State at Vanderbilt NCAA, Week 3, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 19, 2026 at 4:45 PM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Vanderbilt by 14.1 points, giving them a 79% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 61.1 combined points, with Vanderbilt at 37.5 and NC State at 23.5. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Vanderbilt's margin lands between -8.3 and +36.7 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Vanderbilt -14.1 / NC State +14.1 Moneyline: Vanderbilt -374 / NC State +374 Win probability: Vanderbilt 78.9% / NC State 21.1% Projected total: 61.1 points Last recalculated: August 30, 2026 at 6:01 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Vanderbilt: 1657.1, NC State: 1522.3 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Vanderbilt NC State ----------------- ---------- -------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 travel_fatigue +4.0 +2.6 ncaa_efficiency +0.0 +0.0 blowout_hangover +0.0 -20.0 home_field_vector +7.8 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: NC State 23.5 -- Vanderbilt 37.5 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th ----------------- ---- ---- ----- ----- ----- Vanderbilt margin -8.3 +2.3 +13.9 +26.0 +36.7 Total points 39.6 49.5 61.0 72.4 82.3 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: VANDERBILT Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ----------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Blaze Berlowitz QB Passing yards 71.0 -- Pass attempts 7.1 -- Completions 4.6 -- Passing TDs 0.21 19% 1+ Rushing yards 27.4 -- Rushing TDs 0.26 23% 1+ Junior Sherrill WR Receiving yards 67.2 32-112 Receptions 4.3 2-7 Receiving TDs 0.25 22% 1+ Ja'Cory Thomas WR Receiving yards 54.3 19-70 Receptions 3.3 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.25 22% 1+ Sedrick Alexander RB Rushing yards 43.8 3-79 Carries 9.3 4-14 Rushing TDs 1.01 64% 1+, 27% 2+ Receiving yards 18.2 -- Receptions 2.5 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.29 25% 1+ Cole Spence TE Receiving yards 41.7 18-65 Receptions 2.6 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.27 24% 1+ Jamezell Lassiter RB Rushing yards 39.9 -- Carries 5.6 -- Rushing TDs 0.29 25% 1+ Receiving yards 16.5 -- Receptions 1.4 2-2 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Tristen Brown WR Receiving yards 38.3 3-69 Receptions 2.5 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Jayvontay Conner TE Receiving yards 31.7 8-52 Receptions 2.5 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.23 21% 1+ Bryan Longwell LB Tackles 6.4 4-11 CJ Heard S Tackles 5.9 4-8 Bryce Cowan LB Sacks 0.25 22% 1+ Nick Rinaldi LB Sacks 0.19 17% 1+ NC STATE Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ---------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- CJ Bailey QB Passing yards 222.0 138-314 Pass attempts 29.5 21-35 Completions 18.4 12-23 Passing TDs 1.77 83% 1+, 53% 2+ Rushing yards 26.6 -- Rushing TDs 0.44 36% 1+, 7% 2+ Jayden Scott RB Rushing yards 55.7 15-126 Carries 10.5 5-19 Rushing TDs 0.10 10% 1+ Receiving yards 18.5 -- Receptions 2.3 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Victor Snow WR Rushing yards 15.2 -- Rushing TDs 0.26 23% 1+ Receiving yards 55.1 20-103 Receptions 4.5 2-8 Receiving TDs 0.65 48% 1+, 14% 2+ Davion Gause RB Rushing yards 41.3 0-64 Carries 8.9 4-14 Rushing TDs 0.32 27% 1+ Receiving yards 19.8 0-35 Receptions 2.5 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.21 19% 1+ Davion Dozier WR Receiving yards 38.8 3-62 Receptions 2.6 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.52 40% 1+, 10% 2+ Teddy Hoffmann WR Receiving yards 32.6 -- Receptions 2.3 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.39 32% 1+, 6% 2+ Asaad Brown Jr. CB Tackles 5.9 4-10 King Mack S Tackles 5.2 3-8 Harvey Dyson III LB Sacks 0.50 39% 1+, 9% 2+ Joseph Adedire DE Sacks 0.25 22% 1+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Vanderbilt recent form: 3-2 over last 5 games NC State recent form: 3-2 over last 5 games ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10218