Wyoming at Central Michigan NCAA, Week 3, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 19, 2026 at 5:00 PM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Central Michigan by 9.3 points, giving them a 70% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 30.8 combined points, with Central Michigan at 20.0 and Wyoming at 10.7. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Central Michigan's margin lands between -13.4 and +31.8 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Central Michigan -9.3 / Wyoming +9.3 Moneyline: Central Michigan -239 / Wyoming +239 Win probability: Central Michigan 70.5% / Wyoming 29.5% Projected total: 30.8 points Last recalculated: August 30, 2026 at 6:01 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Central Michigan: 1422.5, Wyoming: 1365.0 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Central Michigan Wyoming ----------------- ---------------- ------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 travel_fatigue +3.5 -5.0 ncaa_efficiency +0.0 +0.0 blowout_hangover -20.0 -20.0 home_field_vector +20.0 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Wyoming 10.7 -- Central Michigan 20.0 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th ----------------------- ----- ---- ---- ----- ----- Central Michigan margin -13.4 -2.4 +9.2 +21.0 +31.8 Total points 9.0 19.2 30.7 42.2 52.1 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: CENTRAL MICHIGAN Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds -------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Langston Lewis WR Rushing yards 3.3 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 54.9 19-93 Receptions 4.3 2-7 Receiving TDs 0.33 28% 1+ Brock Townsend RB Rushing yards 47.6 6-80 Carries 9.5 4-14 Rushing TDs 0.37 31% 1+, 5% 2+ Receiving yards 19.2 -- Receptions 2.0 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.28 24% 1+ Angel Flores QB Passing yards 40.8 -- Pass attempts 7.9 -- Completions 4.6 -- Passing TDs 0.12 12% 1+ Rushing yards 41.8 1-78 Rushing TDs 0.73 52% 1+, 17% 2+ Vaughn Blue RB Rushing yards 37.5 -- Carries 8.5 3-14 Rushing TDs 0.18 17% 1+ Receiving yards 22.1 3-53 Receptions 2.4 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.15 14% 1+ Tommy McIntosh WR Receiving yards 33.6 -- Receptions 3.1 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.22 20% 1+ Nasir Williams WR Receiving yards 31.5 -- Receptions 2.0 -- Receiving TDs 0.29 25% 1+ Jaion Jackson DB Tackles 4.3 2-6 JJ Douglas DL Tackles 3.4 2-5 Sacks 0.29 25% 1+ Korver Demma DL Sacks 0.38 31% 1+, 6% 2+ WYOMING Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds --------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Mason Drube QB Passing yards 149.7 65-262 Pass attempts 25.0 16-44 Completions 14.5 8-25 Passing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Samuel Harris RB Rushing yards 49.3 8-91 Carries 10.8 5-17 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 21.6 2-41 Receptions 2.6 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Diore Hubbard RB Rushing yards 44.3 3-76 Carries 11.5 6-21 Rushing TDs 0.52 41% 1+, 10% 2+ Receiving yards 21.0 2-55 Receptions 2.9 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Charlie Coenen WR Receiving yards 36.8 1-60 Receptions 2.0 -- Receiving TDs 0.30 26% 1+ Eric Richardson WR Receiving yards 24.0 -- Receptions 2.2 -- Receiving TDs 0.15 14% 1+ Deion DeBlanc WR Rushing yards 19.7 -- Rushing TDs 0.23 20% 1+ Receiving yards 20.6 -- Receptions 3.1 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Jones Thomas S Tackles 5.1 3-9 Ethan Stuhlsatz LB Tackles 4.4 2-8 Esaia Bogar DE Sacks 0.20 18% 1+ Jett Vincent S Sacks 0.00 0% 1+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Central Michigan recent form: 2-3 over last 5 games Wyoming recent form: 1-4 over last 5 games ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10219