Temple at Toledo NCAA, Week 3, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 19, 2026 at 7:00 PM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Toledo by 17.9 points, giving them a 84% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 47.4 combined points, with Toledo at 32.5 and Temple at 14.7. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Toledo's margin lands between -4.3 and +40.0 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Toledo -17.9 / Temple +17.9 Moneyline: Toledo -533 / Temple +533 Win probability: Toledo 84.2% / Temple 15.8% Projected total: 47.4 points Last recalculated: August 30, 2026 at 6:02 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Toledo: 1561.0, Temple: 1374.7 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Toledo Temple ----------------- ------ ------ elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 travel_fatigue +3.2 +1.2 ncaa_efficiency +0.0 +0.0 blowout_hangover +0.0 -20.0 home_field_vector +17.4 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Temple 14.7 -- Toledo 32.5 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th ------------- ---- ---- ----- ----- ----- Toledo margin -4.3 +6.0 +17.8 +29.4 +40.0 Total points 25.8 35.8 47.1 58.5 68.7 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: TOLEDO Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------ --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Terrell Crosby Jr. WR Receiving yards 32.4 -- Receptions 2.4 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.14 14% 1+ Connor Walendzak RB Rushing yards 25.7 -- Carries 7.4 2-10 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Jacob Newell TE Receiving yards 10.7 -- Receptions 2.1 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Langston Long LB Tackles 3.8 1-6 Armorion Smith S Tackles 3.8 2-6 Nicholas Thompson S Sacks 0.12 12% 1+ Ezra Odinjor DE Sacks 0.12 12% 1+ TEMPLE Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Hunter Smith RB Rushing yards 37.3 -- Carries 8.0 2-12 Rushing TDs 0.10 10% 1+ Receiving yards 13.8 -- Receptions 2.5 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Colin Chase WR Rushing yards 9.6 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 36.7 1-51 Receptions 3.9 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.27 23% 1+ JoJo Bermudez WR Rushing yards 3.2 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 34.7 -- Receptions 3.2 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.18 16% 1+ Peter Clarke TE Receiving yards 29.3 5-50 Receptions 2.9 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.28 24% 1+ Keveun Mason RB Rushing yards 29.2 -- Carries 6.8 1-10 Rushing TDs 0.12 11% 1+ Receiving yards 12.3 -- Receptions 2.3 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Ryder Kusch TE Receiving yards 10.2 -- Receptions 2.1 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.24 21% 1+ Curly Ordonez LB Tackles 6.7 4-11 Sacks 0.12 12% 1+ Avery Powell S Tackles 4.9 2-8 JaMair Diaz LB Sacks 0.25 22% 1+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Toledo recent form: 4-1 over last 5 games Temple recent form: 1-4 over last 5 games ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10220