SMU at Louisville NCAA, Week 3, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 19, 2026 at 7:30 PM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Louisville by 1.9 points, giving them a 54% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 43.2 combined points, with Louisville at 22.5 and SMU at 20.7. The real sportsbook market agrees closely, also favoring Louisville by 1.5 points -- little disagreement between the model and the market here. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Louisville's margin lands between -20.1 and +23.8 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Louisville -1.9 / SMU +1.9 Moneyline: Louisville -119 / SMU +119 Win probability: Louisville 54.4% / SMU 45.6% Projected total: 43.2 points Last recalculated: August 30, 2026 at 6:02 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Louisville: 1616.0, SMU: 1667.4 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Louisville SMU ----------------- ---------- ---- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 travel_fatigue +4.0 +1.8 ncaa_efficiency +0.0 +0.0 blowout_hangover +0.0 +0.0 home_field_vector +14.9 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ Consensus spread: Louisville -1.5 / SMU +1.5 Consensus moneyline: Louisville -112 / SMU -108 Market no-vig win probability: Louisville 50.4% / SMU 49.6% Spread range across books: -1.5 to -0.5 (2 books) Per-book lines (as of 2026-08-10T12:20:04.565817+00:00 -- STALE, hasn't refreshed recently): Moneyline (EV% is against the model's own win probability, not a cross-book average): Book Louisville EV% SMU EV% ---------- ---------- ----- ---- ------ draftkings -112 +3.0% -108 -12.2% mybookieag -115 +1.7% -111 -13.3% Spread: Book Louisville SMU ---------- ----------- ----------- draftkings -1.5 (-105) +1.5 (-115) mybookieag -0.5 (-110) +0.5 (-110) Line movement: opened Louisville -1.5 (July 13, 2026 at 7:21 AM UTC), now -1.5 (August 10, 2026 at 12:20 PM UTC), 115 snapshots on record. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: SMU 20.7 -- Louisville 22.5 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th ----------------- ----- ---- ---- ----- ----- Louisville margin -20.1 -9.7 +1.8 +13.3 +23.8 Total points 21.9 32.0 43.2 54.4 64.7 Probability Louisville covers the market spread: 50.7% ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: LOUISVILLE Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ---------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Tre Richardson WR Rushing yards 21.9 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 77.0 41-141 Receptions 4.2 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.99 63% 1+, 26% 2+ Lincoln Kienholz QB Passing yards 63.5 -- Pass attempts 6.5 -- Completions 5.0 -- Passing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Rushing yards 20.5 -- Rushing TDs 0.50 40% 1+, 9% 2+ Isaac Brown RB Rushing yards 58.8 18-113 Carries 11.6 6-17 Rushing TDs 0.32 27% 1+ Receiving yards 11.8 -- Receptions 2.8 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Keyjuan Brown RB Rushing yards 57.0 16-101 Carries 11.0 6-16 Rushing TDs 0.32 27% 1+ Receiving yards 15.0 -- Receptions 1.8 0-2 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Lawayne McCoy WR Receiving yards 50.1 14-92 Receptions 3.2 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.49 39% 1+, 9% 2+ Brody Foley TE Receiving yards 46.6 23-87 Receptions 3.6 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.48 38% 1+, 9% 2+ Kris Hughes WR Receiving yards 28.3 -- Receptions 1.8 -- Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Jaleel Skinner TE Receiving yards 25.9 2-42 Receptions 2.6 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.19 18% 1+ Koen Entringer DB Tackles 5.7 4-9 Stanquan Clark LB Tackles 5.0 2-8 Tyler Thompson DL Sacks 0.88 58% 1+, 22% 2+ Clev Lubin DL Sacks 0.56 43% 1+, 11% 2+ SMU Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Kevin Jennings QB Passing yards 231.7 147-286 Pass attempts 35.0 26-40 Completions 21.9 16-26 Passing TDs 1.52 78% 1+, 45% 2+ Rushing yards 6.9 -- Rushing TDs 0.35 30% 1+ Yannick Smith WR Receiving yards 51.2 16-95 Receptions 4.1 2-7 Receiving TDs 0.53 41% 1+, 10% 2+ Yamir Knight WR Receiving yards 50.4 15-99 Receptions 4.4 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.32 27% 1+ Kendrick Raphael RB Rushing yards 50.4 9-68 Carries 14.8 9-21 Rushing TDs 1.07 66% 1+, 29% 2+ Receiving yards 19.2 -- Receptions 3.3 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.10 9% 1+ Jalen Cooper WR Receiving yards 41.1 6-73 Receptions 2.8 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.14 13% 1+ Randy Pittman TE Receiving yards 32.5 8-51 Receptions 2.9 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.33 28% 1+ Theo Melin Ohrstrom TE Receiving yards 27.9 4-47 Receptions 2.3 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Dramekco Green RB Rushing yards 27.4 -- Carries 8.3 2-10 Rushing TDs 0.19 18% 1+ Alexander Kilgore LB Tackles 6.6 4-10 Tyren Polley S Tackles 5.6 4-8 Jarvis Lee S Sacks 0.50 39% 1+, 9% 2+ Marques White DE Sacks 0.38 31% 1+, 6% 2+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Louisville recent form: 2-3 over last 5 games SMU recent form: 4-1 over last 5 games Head-to-head history: Season Away Home Winner ------ ------ ------ ------ 2025 LOU 6 SMU 38 SMU 2024 SMU 34 LOU 27 SMU ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10221