Utah State at Utah NCAA, Week 3, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 19, 2026 at 7:30 PM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Utah by 20.3 points, giving them a 87% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 67.9 combined points, with Utah at 44.1 and Utah State at 23.6. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Utah's margin lands between -1.5 and +42.9 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Utah -20.3 / Utah State +20.3 Moneyline: Utah -666 / Utah State +666 Win probability: Utah 87.0% / Utah State 13.1% Projected total: 67.9 points Last recalculated: August 30, 2026 at 6:02 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Utah: 1697.2, Utah State: 1439.7 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Utah Utah State ----------------- ---- ---------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 travel_fatigue +4.0 +3.8 ncaa_efficiency +0.0 +0.0 blowout_hangover +0.0 +0.0 home_field_vector +6.6 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Utah State 23.6 -- Utah 44.1 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th ------------ ---- ---- ----- ----- ----- Utah margin -1.5 +8.5 +20.4 +32.2 +42.9 Total points 46.0 56.2 67.9 78.8 89.4 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: UTAH Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ----------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Devon Dampier QB Passing yards 276.8 192-386 Pass attempts 27.2 18-37 Completions 16.3 10-22 Passing TDs 2.71 93% 1+, 75% 2+ Rushing yards 79.0 38-138 Rushing TDs 1.43 76% 1+, 42% 2+ Braden Pegan WR Rushing yards 11.9 -- Rushing TDs 0.39 32% 1+, 6% 2+ Receiving yards 75.7 40-107 Receptions 4.8 3-7 Receiving TDs 0.29 26% 1+ Wayshawn Parker RB Rushing yards 64.3 23-104 Carries 12.4 7-17 Rushing TDs 0.31 26% 1+ Receiving yards 18.1 -- Receptions 2.1 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.20 18% 1+ Kyri Shoels WR Receiving yards 62.8 27-107 Receptions 4.3 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Steve Chavez-Soto RB Rushing yards 51.4 10-73 Carries 11.0 6-13 Rushing TDs 0.72 51% 1+, 16% 2+ Larry Simmons WR Receiving yards 46.9 11-82 Receptions 2.5 0-4 Receiving TDs 1.01 64% 1+, 27% 2+ Jackson Bennee S Tackles 5.5 3-9 Johnathan Hall LB Tackles 5.3 2-8 Elijah Elliss LB Sacks 0.33 28% 1+ Ethan Day DE Sacks 0.31 27% 1+ UTAH STATE Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds -------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Bryson Barnes QB Passing yards 162.7 78-223 Pass attempts 28.7 20-34 Completions 16.5 10-21 Passing TDs 0.70 51% 1+, 16% 2+ Rushing yards 39.7 -- Rushing TDs 0.40 33% 1+, 6% 2+ Javen Jacobs RB Rushing yards 48.4 7-89 Carries 6.9 2-10 Rushing TDs 0.34 29% 1+ Receiving yards 30.5 11-56 Receptions 3.1 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.23 20% 1+ Broc Lane TE Receiving yards 35.8 12-79 Receptions 3.0 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.33 28% 1+ Kahanu Davis WR Receiving yards 33.0 -- Receptions 1.8 -- Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Noah White RB Rushing yards 27.6 -- Carries 6.9 2-10 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 27.1 8-60 Receptions 2.3 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Josh Sterzer TE Receiving yards 19.5 -- Receptions 2.1 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.28 25% 1+ Brevin Hamblin S Tackles 8.6 6-12 John Miller LB Tackles 8.2 6-11 Chris Joe LB Sacks 0.50 39% 1+, 9% 2+ Tyree Morris DT Sacks 0.44 36% 1+, 7% 2+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Utah recent form: 5-0 over last 5 games Utah State recent form: 2-3 over last 5 games Head-to-head history: Season Away Home Winner ------ ------- ------ ------ 2024 UTAH 38 USU 21 UTAH ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10222