Kentucky at Texas A&M NCAA, Week 3, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 19, 2026 at 7:30 PM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Texas A&M by 19.3 points, giving them a 86% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 50.0 combined points, with Texas A&M at 34.7 and Kentucky at 15.4. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Texas A&M's margin lands between -2.8 and +41.4 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Texas A&M -19.3 / Kentucky +19.3 Moneyline: Texas A&M -607 / Kentucky +607 Win probability: Texas A&M 85.9% / Kentucky 14.1% Projected total: 50.0 points Last recalculated: August 30, 2026 at 6:02 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Texas A&M: 1667.3, Kentucky: 1469.2 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Texas A&M Kentucky ----------------- --------- -------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 travel_fatigue +4.0 +1.6 ncaa_efficiency +0.0 +0.0 blowout_hangover +0.0 -20.0 home_field_vector +12.9 -- consecutive_road -- -15.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Kentucky 15.4 -- Texas A&M 34.7 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th ---------------- ---- ---- ----- ----- ----- Texas A&M margin -2.8 +7.8 +19.6 +30.9 +41.4 Total points 28.8 38.6 50.1 61.3 71.3 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: TEXAS A&M Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Marcel Reed QB Passing yards 246.9 162-340 Pass attempts 30.0 22-37 Completions 18.8 12-24 Passing TDs 1.59 80% 1+, 47% 2+ Rushing yards 44.2 4-78 Rushing TDs 0.61 46% 1+, 13% 2+ Mario Craver WR Rushing yards 21.4 -- Rushing TDs 0.16 14% 1+ Receiving yards 59.3 24-93 Receptions 4.1 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Rueben Owens II RB Rushing yards 58.2 17-100 Carries 11.9 6-17 Rushing TDs 0.65 48% 1+, 14% 2+ Receiving yards 18.0 -- Receptions 2.1 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Ashton Bethel-Roman WR Receiving yards 57.9 22-106 Receptions 2.9 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.35 30% 1+ Isaiah Horton WR Receiving yards 39.4 4-65 Receptions 3.1 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.59 44% 1+, 12% 2+ Richie Anderson TE Receiving yards 27.3 3-50 Receptions 3.2 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.20 18% 1+ Houston Thomas TE Receiving yards 26.2 2-49 Receptions 3.1 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.20 18% 1+ Jamarion Morrow RB Rushing yards 22.8 -- Carries 6.4 1-9 Rushing TDs 0.13 12% 1+ Receiving yards 20.5 1-34 Receptions 2.1 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.52 40% 1+, 10% 2+ Ray Coney LB Tackles 9.0 6-12 Tawfiq Byard S Tackles 6.5 4-10 Ryan Henderson DE Sacks 0.88 58% 1+, 22% 2+ Dalton Brooks S Sacks 0.38 31% 1+, 6% 2+ KENTUCKY Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ----------------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Jason Patterson RB Rushing yards 53.8 13-91 Carries 9.8 4-16 Rushing TDs 0.12 12% 1+ Receiving yards 20.7 1-40 Receptions 2.7 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.11 10% 1+ Kenny Minchey QB Passing yards 50.3 -- Pass attempts 10.7 2-14 Completions 7.3 1-10 Passing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Rushing yards 17.8 -- Rushing TDs 0.18 16% 1+ CJ Baxter RB Rushing yards 46.5 5-73 Carries 8.9 4-13 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 20.1 1-35 Receptions 2.8 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.17 16% 1+ Xavier Daisy WR Receiving yards 40.8 5-63 Receptions 4.1 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.24 21% 1+ DJ Miller WR Receiving yards 37.3 2-88 Receptions 2.9 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.39 32% 1+, 6% 2+ Willie Rodriguez TE Receiving yards 36.3 12-70 Receptions 2.7 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Hardley Gilmore IV WR Receiving yards 27.9 -- Receptions 3.1 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Henry Boyer TE Receiving yards 26.4 2-35 Receptions 2.1 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Ty Bryant DB Tackles 5.9 4-9 Jordan Castell DB Tackles 5.8 4-10 Lorenzo Cowan LB Sacks 0.50 39% 1+, 9% 2+ Mi'Quise Humphrey-Grace DL Sacks 0.44 36% 1+, 7% 2+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Texas A&M recent form: 3-2 over last 5 games Kentucky recent form: 2-3 over last 5 games ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10223