Miami (OH) at Cincinnati NCAA, Week 3, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 19, 2026 at 7:30 PM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Cincinnati by 3.2 points, giving them a 57% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 47.4 combined points, with Cincinnati at 25.3 and Miami (OH) at 21.9. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Cincinnati's margin lands between -18.7 and +25.6 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Cincinnati -3.2 / Miami (OH) +3.2 Moneyline: Cincinnati -135 / Miami (OH) +135 Win probability: Cincinnati 57.5% / Miami (OH) 42.5% Projected total: 47.4 points Last recalculated: August 30, 2026 at 6:02 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Cincinnati: 1466.5, Miami (OH): 1486.8 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Cincinnati Miami (OH) ----------------- ---------- ---------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 travel_fatigue +4.0 -1.7 ncaa_efficiency +0.0 +0.0 blowout_hangover -20.0 +0.0 home_field_vector +7.1 -- consecutive_road -- -15.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Miami (OH) 21.9 -- Cincinnati 25.3 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th ----------------- ----- ---- ---- ----- ----- Cincinnati margin -18.7 -8.3 +3.3 +15.3 +25.6 Total points 26.0 36.1 47.3 58.5 68.3 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: CINCINNATI Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ----------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- JC French IV QB Passing yards 233.3 149-311 Pass attempts 30.6 22-38 Completions 20.1 14-24 Passing TDs 1.88 85% 1+, 56% 2+ Rushing yards 29.6 -- Rushing TDs 0.72 52% 1+, 16% 2+ Cole Tabb RB Rushing yards 43.5 2-77 Carries 11.5 6-20 Rushing TDs 0.31 27% 1+ Receiving yards 12.2 -- Receptions 2.3 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Cade Wolford WR Rushing yards 21.0 -- Rushing TDs 0.18 17% 1+ Receiving yards 42.1 6-75 Receptions 1.9 -- Receiving TDs 0.48 38% 1+, 8% 2+ Zylan Perry RB Rushing yards 41.5 0-60 Carries 11.5 6-15 Rushing TDs 0.51 40% 1+, 9% 2+ Receiving yards 13.4 -- Receptions 2.4 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ JV Gibson WR Receiving yards 31.7 -- Receptions 2.6 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.16 15% 1+ Isaiah Johnson WR Receiving yards 27.0 -- Receptions 1.8 -- Receiving TDs 0.16 15% 1+ Gavin Grover TE Receiving yards 16.9 -- Receptions 2.1 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Filip Maciorowski LB Tackles 6.8 4-10 Sacks 0.25 22% 1+ Jasper Beeler S Tackles 6.8 4-11 Chidera Otutu DL Sacks 0.25 22% 1+ MIAMI (OH) Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ---------------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Thomas Gotkowski QB Passing yards 200.6 116-294 Pass attempts 23.7 15-27 Completions 12.8 6-17 Passing TDs 1.15 68% 1+, 32% 2+ Rushing yards 29.4 -- Rushing TDs 0.29 25% 1+ Lazaro Rogers RB Rushing yards 54.7 14-104 Carries 8.3 2-13 Rushing TDs 0.14 13% 1+ D'Shawntae Jones RB Rushing yards 49.7 9-79 Carries 7.3 2-9 Rushing TDs 0.49 39% 1+, 9% 2+ Braylon Isom WR Receiving yards 27.7 -- Receptions 1.9 -- Receiving TDs 0.66 48% 1+, 14% 2+ Christian Ross TE Receiving yards 25.8 2-46 Receptions 2.3 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.12 11% 1+ Keith Reynolds WR Rushing yards 23.0 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 23.7 -- Receptions 2.0 -- Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Lynel Billups-Williams WR Receiving yards 23.2 -- Receptions 2.3 -- Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ CJ Young LB Tackles 7.9 5-12 Blayne Myrick LB Tackles 7.9 5-11 Bai Jobe DL Sacks 0.58 44% 1+, 12% 2+ James Schott DL Sacks 0.42 34% 1+, 7% 2+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Cincinnati recent form: 0-5 over last 5 games Miami (OH) recent form: 2-3 over last 5 games Head-to-head history: Season Away Home Winner ------ ------- ------- ------ 2024 CIN 27 M-OH 16 CIN 2023 M-OH 31 CIN 24 M-OH ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10224