UTEP at Michigan NCAA, Week 3, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 19, 2026 at 7:30 PM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Michigan by 26.4 points, giving them a 92% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 50.9 combined points, with Michigan at 38.7 and UTEP at 12.3. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Michigan's margin lands between +3.8 and +48.4 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Michigan -26.4 / UTEP +26.4 Moneyline: Michigan -1178 / UTEP +1178 Win probability: Michigan 92.2% / UTEP 7.8% Projected total: 50.9 points Last recalculated: August 30, 2026 at 6:02 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Michigan: 1627.7, UTEP: 1293.1 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Michigan UTEP ----------------- -------- ----- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 travel_fatigue +0.6 +2.6 ncaa_efficiency +0.0 +0.0 blowout_hangover +0.0 -20.0 home_field_vector +10.9 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: UTEP 12.3 -- Michigan 38.7 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th --------------- ---- ----- ----- ----- ----- Michigan margin +3.8 +14.7 +26.7 +38.1 +48.4 Total points 29.1 39.9 51.1 62.5 72.7 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: MICHIGAN Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ---------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Bryce Underwood QB Passing yards 178.7 94-253 Pass attempts 26.9 18-36 Completions 16.6 10-23 Passing TDs 1.03 64% 1+, 28% 2+ Rushing yards 26.0 -- Rushing TDs 0.39 32% 1+, 6% 2+ Jordan Marshall RB Rushing yards 92.6 52-155 Carries 12.7 7-21 Rushing TDs 0.87 58% 1+, 22% 2+ Receiving yards 20.2 1-30 Receptions 2.0 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Bryson Kuzdzal RB Rushing yards 64.0 23-109 Carries 11.1 6-20 Rushing TDs 0.50 39% 1+, 9% 2+ Receiving yards 15.8 -- Receptions 2.3 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Andrew Marsh WR Receiving yards 47.6 12-94 Receptions 4.8 3-8 Receiving TDs 0.50 39% 1+, 9% 2+ JJ Buchanan WR Receiving yards 35.2 -- Receptions 2.7 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.50 39% 1+, 9% 2+ Zack Marshall TE Receiving yards 20.4 -- Receptions 2.5 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.18 17% 1+ Channing Goodwin WR Receiving yards 17.7 -- Receptions 1.9 -- Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Deakon Tonielli TE Receiving yards 16.1 -- Receptions 2.2 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Chris Bracy S Tackles 6.5 4-8 John Henry Daley DE Tackles 4.4 3-6 Sacks 0.81 56% 1+, 20% 2+ Max Alford LB Sacks 0.17 15% 1+ UTEP Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Lamar Sperling RB Rushing yards 38.9 -- Carries 7.1 2-10 Rushing TDs 0.11 10% 1+ Receiving yards 10.9 -- Receptions 1.5 2-2 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Judah Ezinwa TE Receiving yards 33.2 9-48 Receptions 2.1 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Jaylan Brown WR Receiving yards 23.7 -- Receptions 2.1 -- Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Elijah McCoy RB Rushing yards 17.8 -- Carries 5.1 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Marcus Torres WR Receiving yards 14.6 -- Receptions 2.0 -- Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Royal Capell WR Receiving yards 12.0 -- Receptions 2.0 -- Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Jayden Wilson LB Tackles 8.0 5-12 Xavier Smith S Tackles 5.8 4-8 Ekow Taylor DE Sacks 0.33 28% 1+ Vashon Brunswick II LB Sacks 0.25 22% 1+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Michigan recent form: 3-2 over last 5 games UTEP recent form: 0-5 over last 5 games ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10225