Florida State at Alabama NCAA, Week 3, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 19, 2026 at 7:30 PM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Alabama by 18.6 points, giving them a 85% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 40.4 combined points, with Alabama at 29.5 and Florida State at 11.0. The real sportsbook market sees it differently: Alabama favored by 15.5 points, a 3.1-point gap from the model's own number -- worth noting, not automatically a sign either side is wrong. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Alabama's margin lands between -3.8 and +40.8 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Alabama -18.6 / Florida State +18.6 Moneyline: Alabama -568 / Florida State +568 Win probability: Alabama 85.0% / Florida State 15.0% Projected total: 40.4 points Last recalculated: August 30, 2026 at 6:01 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Alabama: 1683.7, Florida State: 1446.5 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Alabama Florida State ----------------- ------- ------------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 travel_fatigue +2.8 +3.2 ncaa_efficiency +0.0 +0.0 blowout_hangover -20.0 +0.0 home_field_vector +20.0 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ Consensus spread: Alabama -15.5 / Florida State +15.5 Consensus moneyline: Alabama -650 / Florida State +470 Market no-vig win probability: Alabama 83.2% / Florida State 16.8% Spread range across books: -16.5 to -15.5 (2 books) Per-book lines (as of 2026-08-10T12:20:04.562308+00:00 -- STALE, hasn't refreshed recently): Moneyline (EV% is against the model's own win probability, not a cross-book average): Book Alabama EV% Florida State EV% ---------- ------- ----- ------------- ------ draftkings -650 -1.9% +470 -14.7% mybookieag -800 -4.3% +480 -13.2% Spread: Book Alabama Florida State ---------- ------------ ------------- draftkings -15.5 (-110) +15.5 (-110) mybookieag -16.5 (-110) +16.5 (-110) Line movement: opened Alabama -15.5 (July 13, 2026 at 7:21 AM UTC), now -15.5 (August 10, 2026 at 12:20 PM UTC), 115 snapshots on record. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Florida State 11.0 -- Alabama 29.5 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th -------------- ---- ---- ----- ----- ----- Alabama margin -3.8 +6.7 +18.4 +30.2 +40.8 Total points 19.0 29.1 40.5 51.9 61.9 Probability Alabama covers the market spread: 56.8% ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: ALABAMA Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds --------------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Austin Mack QB Passing yards 123.0 39-181 Pass attempts 20.1 12-29 Completions 13.1 7-20 Passing TDs 0.76 53% 1+, 18% 2+ Ryan Coleman-Williams WR Receiving yards 51.8 16-84 Receptions 4.0 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.33 28% 1+ AK Dear RB Rushing yards 50.0 9-94 Carries 7.1 2-9 Rushing TDs 0.24 21% 1+ Lotzeir Brooks WR Rushing yards 4.9 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 41.9 6-70 Receptions 3.1 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.33 28% 1+ Noah Rogers WR Receiving yards 39.3 4-60 Receptions 3.3 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.17 15% 1+ Daniel Hill RB Rushing yards 38.2 -- Carries 9.3 4-14 Rushing TDs 0.45 36% 1+, 7% 2+ Receiving yards 22.8 3-52 Receptions 3.0 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.09 8% 1+ Josh Ford TE Receiving yards 22.8 -- Receptions 1.4 2-2 Receiving TDs 0.36 30% 1+, 5% 2+ Kaleb Edwards TE Receiving yards 21.3 -- Receptions 2.0 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.15 14% 1+ Caleb Woodson LB Tackles 6.3 4-9 Bray Hubbard DB Tackles 5.6 4-8 Yhonzae Pierre LB Sacks 0.88 58% 1+, 22% 2+ Devan Thompkins DL Sacks 0.31 27% 1+ FLORIDA STATE Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds -------------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Ashton Daniels QB Passing yards 183.0 99-291 Pass attempts 29.5 21-45 Completions 17.8 12-28 Passing TDs 0.77 54% 1+, 18% 2+ Rushing yards 43.8 3-77 Rushing TDs 0.58 44% 1+, 12% 2+ Duce Robinson WR Receiving yards 59.0 23-101 Receptions 4.3 2-7 Receiving TDs 0.35 30% 1+, 5% 2+ Micahi Danzy WR Rushing yards 21.6 -- Rushing TDs 0.24 21% 1+ Receiving yards 47.5 12-81 Receptions 3.5 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.35 30% 1+, 5% 2+ Quintrevion Wisner RB Rushing yards 44.9 4-77 Carries 12.4 7-19 Rushing TDs 0.21 19% 1+ Receiving yards 14.5 -- Receptions 3.0 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.10 10% 1+ Samuel Singleton Jr. RB Rushing yards 37.8 -- Carries 9.9 4-16 Rushing TDs 0.48 38% 1+, 8% 2+ Jayvan Boggs WR Receiving yards 30.9 -- Receptions 2.9 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Desirrio Riles TE Receiving yards 26.8 3-50 Receptions 2.9 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.07 7% 1+ Landen Thomas TE Receiving yards 15.1 -- Receptions 1.3 2-2 Receiving TDs 0.27 24% 1+ Chris Jones LB Tackles 8.6 6-12 Ja'Bril Rawls DB Tackles 5.5 4-9 Mandrell Desir DL Sacks 0.69 50% 1+, 15% 2+ Rylan Kennedy DL Sacks 0.25 22% 1+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Alabama recent form: 2-3 over last 5 games Florida State recent form: 2-3 over last 5 games Head-to-head history: Season Away Home Winner ------ ------ ------ ------ 2025 ALA 17 FSU 31 FSU ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10226