USC at Rutgers NCAA, Week 3, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 19, 2026 at 7:30 PM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors USC by 5.2 points, giving them a 62% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 60.8 combined points, with Rutgers at 27.9 and USC at 33.0. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Rutgers's margin lands between -27.2 and +17.2 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. Injury watch: Terrell Anderson (Out). ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Rutgers +5.2 / USC -5.2 Moneyline: Rutgers +163 / USC -163 Win probability: Rutgers 38.0% / USC 62.0% Projected total: 60.8 points Last recalculated: August 30, 2026 at 6:02 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Rutgers: 1484.3, USC: 1648.4 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Rutgers USC ----------------- ------- ---- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 -3.0 travel_fatigue +4.0 -3.3 ncaa_efficiency +0.0 +0.0 blowout_hangover +0.0 +0.0 home_field_vector +4.1 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: USC 33.0 -- Rutgers 27.9 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th -------------- ----- ----- ---- ---- ----- Rutgers margin -27.2 -16.8 -5.2 +6.6 +17.2 Total points 39.4 49.7 60.5 72.3 82.5 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: RUTGERS Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds --------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Dylan Lonergan QB Passing yards 179.2 95-312 Pass attempts 27.6 19-44 Completions 17.3 11-28 Passing TDs 0.52 40% 1+, 10% 2+ Rushing yards 0.1 -- Rushing TDs 0.13 12% 1+ Antwan Raymond RB Rushing yards 89.5 48-184 Carries 14.8 9-26 Rushing TDs 0.61 46% 1+, 13% 2+ Receiving yards 29.5 10-71 Receptions 2.8 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.23 21% 1+ KJ Duff WR Receiving yards 64.8 29-128 Receptions 4.3 2-7 Receiving TDs 0.63 47% 1+, 13% 2+ Clay Thevenin RB Rushing yards 64.3 23-115 Carries 10.4 5-12 Rushing TDs 0.51 40% 1+, 9% 2+ Receiving yards 31.1 12-55 Receptions 3.3 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Kameron Anthony TE Receiving yards 27.0 3-46 Receptions 1.7 -- Receiving TDs 0.21 19% 1+ Ty Morris LB Tackles 6.3 4-8 Kaj Sanders DB Tackles 5.4 3-8 Malachi Davis DL Sacks 0.69 50% 1+, 15% 2+ Rondo Porter DL Sacks 0.25 22% 1+ USC Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------ --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Jayden Maiava QB Passing yards 269.4 185-336 Pass attempts 31.8 23-39 Completions 20.2 14-26 Passing TDs 1.92 85% 1+, 57% 2+ Rushing yards 17.5 -- Rushing TDs 0.44 36% 1+, 7% 2+ King Miller RB Rushing yards 83.1 42-126 Carries 15.0 10-18 Rushing TDs 0.86 58% 1+, 21% 2+ Receiving yards 20.2 1-35 Receptions 2.5 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Waymond Jordan RB Rushing yards 77.6 36-143 Carries 12.3 6-18 Rushing TDs 0.82 56% 1+, 20% 2+ Receiving yards 19.5 0-33 Receptions 2.1 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Tanook Hines WR Receiving yards 50.3 15-110 Receptions 3.4 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.13 12% 1+ Zacharyus Williams WR Receiving yards 39.6 4-63 Receptions 2.7 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Carson Tabaracci TE Receiving yards 25.7 2-35 Receptions 2.3 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.53 41% 1+, 10% 2+ Terrell Anderson WR Receiving yards 22.8 -- Receptions 1.8 -- Receiving TDs 0.16 14% 1+ Desman Stephens II LB Tackles 7.4 4-12 Alex Graham CB Tackles 5.1 4-9 Kameryn Crawford DE Sacks 0.38 31% 1+, 6% 2+ Jadyn Ramos DE Sacks 0.33 28% 1+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Rutgers recent form: 2-3 over last 5 games USC recent form: 3-2 over last 5 games Head-to-head history: Season Away Home Winner ------ ------- ------ ------ 2024 RUTG 20 USC 42 USC Injury/hazard flags: Player Pos Team Status ---------------- --- ---- ------ Terrell Anderson WR USC Out ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10227