Stanford at Duke NCAA, Week 3, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 19, 2026 at 8:00 PM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Duke by 14.4 points, giving them a 79% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 61.2 combined points, with Duke at 37.7 and Stanford at 23.4. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Duke's margin lands between -8.0 and +37.0 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. Injury watch: Niki Prongos (Out). ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Duke -14.4 / Stanford +14.4 Moneyline: Duke -386 / Stanford +386 Win probability: Duke 79.4% / Stanford 20.6% Projected total: 61.2 points Last recalculated: August 30, 2026 at 6:01 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Duke: 1613.8, Stanford: 1455.3 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Duke Stanford ----------------- ---- -------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 -3.0 travel_fatigue +4.0 -3.1 ncaa_efficiency +0.0 +0.0 blowout_hangover +0.0 +0.0 home_field_vector +1.1 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Stanford 23.4 -- Duke 37.7 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th ------------ ---- ---- ----- ----- ----- Duke margin -8.0 +2.3 +14.2 +26.2 +37.0 Total points 39.3 49.7 61.1 72.7 82.7 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: DUKE Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds --------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Walker Eget QB Passing yards 318.5 234-532 Pass attempts 33.0 24-50 Completions 20.3 14-31 Passing TDs 1.94 86% 1+, 58% 2+ Rushing yards 22.1 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Nate Sheppard RB Rushing yards 64.6 24-104 Carries 14.6 9-19 Rushing TDs 0.83 56% 1+, 20% 2+ Receiving yards 21.1 2-38 Receptions 2.9 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Javen Nicholas WR Rushing yards 12.4 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 62.8 27-133 Receptions 4.5 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.51 40% 1+, 9% 2+ Jeremiah Hasley TE Receiving yards 38.2 14-66 Receptions 3.5 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.51 40% 1+, 9% 2+ Nate Kurisky TE Receiving yards 19.8 -- Receptions 2.3 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.09 8% 1+ Luke Mergott LB Tackles 8.3 6-11 Sacks 0.19 17% 1+ DaShawn Stone S Tackles 5.6 4-8 Elliott Schaper LB Sacks 0.67 49% 1+, 14% 2+ STANFORD Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds --------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Micah Ford RB Rushing yards 60.3 19-115 Carries 13.2 8-21 Rushing TDs 0.74 52% 1+, 17% 2+ Receiving yards 19.5 -- Receptions 2.4 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Caden High WR Receiving yards 53.0 17-106 Receptions 3.7 2-7 Receiving TDs 0.12 12% 1+ Sedrick Irvin RB Rushing yards 26.5 -- Carries 7.6 2-11 Rushing TDs 0.12 12% 1+ Receiving yards 9.6 -- Receptions 1.5 2-2 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Marcus Brown WR Receiving yards 26.2 -- Receptions 2.6 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.17 15% 1+ Benji Blackburn TE Receiving yards 19.0 -- Receptions 2.3 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.09 8% 1+ Jordan Onovughe WR Receiving yards 15.7 -- Receptions 2.0 -- Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Matt Rose LB Tackles 8.8 6-11 Jahsiah Galvan LB Tackles 6.4 4-9 Gabe Kaminski LB Sacks 0.38 31% 1+, 6% 2+ Ernest Cooper LB Sacks 0.38 31% 1+, 6% 2+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Duke recent form: 4-1 over last 5 games Stanford recent form: 2-3 over last 5 games Injury/hazard flags: Player Pos Team Status ------------ --- ---- ------ Niki Prongos OL STAN Out ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10228