Ball State at Liberty NCAA, Week 3, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 19, 2026 at 8:00 PM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Liberty by 12.9 points, giving them a 77% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 47.9 combined points, with Liberty at 30.4 and Ball State at 17.3. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Liberty's margin lands between -9.4 and +35.1 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Liberty -12.9 / Ball State +12.9 Moneyline: Liberty -335 / Ball State +335 Win probability: Liberty 77.0% / Ball State 23.0% Projected total: 47.9 points Last recalculated: August 30, 2026 at 6:01 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Liberty: 1410.8, Ball State: 1311.7 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Liberty Ball State ----------------- ------- ---------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 travel_fatigue +4.0 +3.0 ncaa_efficiency +0.0 +0.0 blowout_hangover +0.0 -20.0 home_field_vector +10.0 -- consecutive_road -- -15.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Ball State 17.3 -- Liberty 30.4 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th -------------- ---- ---- ----- ----- ----- Liberty margin -9.4 +1.4 +13.0 +24.9 +35.1 Total points 26.2 36.4 47.7 59.0 69.6 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: LIBERTY Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds --------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Ethan Vasko QB Passing yards 205.9 122-281 Pass attempts 26.9 18-36 Completions 15.5 10-22 Passing TDs 0.75 53% 1+, 17% 2+ Rushing yards 25.6 -- Rushing TDs 0.60 45% 1+, 12% 2+ Kanye Udoh RB Rushing yards 51.5 10-98 Carries 9.6 4-17 Rushing TDs 0.30 26% 1+ Terron Kellman RB Rushing yards 50.4 9-85 Carries 8.8 3-12 Rushing TDs 0.61 46% 1+, 12% 2+ Receiving yards 22.3 3-36 Receptions 1.4 2-2 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Jamari Person WR Receiving yards 33.3 -- Receptions 2.8 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Caleb Ryan TE Receiving yards 24.4 0-56 Receptions 2.1 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Derrell Farrar LB Tackles 6.8 4-10 Jeremiah Vessel S Tackles 5.4 3-9 Joe Strickland DL Sacks 0.25 22% 1+ Nathan Pirolli DL Sacks 0.12 12% 1+ BALL STATE Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ---------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Jalen Bonds RB Rushing yards 47.2 6-80 Carries 10.8 5-18 Rushing TDs 0.34 29% 1+ Donovan Hamilton WR Receiving yards 40.1 4-67 Receptions 3.5 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ TJ Horton RB Rushing yards 30.0 -- Carries 8.2 2-11 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 13.7 -- Receptions 2.5 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.14 14% 1+ Jabari Smith Jr. WR Receiving yards 25.6 -- Receptions 2.5 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.52 40% 1+, 10% 2+ Elisha Durham WR Receiving yards 15.5 -- Receptions 2.0 -- Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Willizhuan Yates DB Tackles 4.2 2-6 Derek Fields DB Tackles 4.1 2-6 Ameir Glenn DT Sacks 0.14 13% 1+ Ben Marsh DE Sacks 0.12 12% 1+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Liberty recent form: 1-4 over last 5 games Ball State recent form: 1-4 over last 5 games ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10229