Louisiana Tech at Baylor NCAA, Week 3, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 19, 2026 at 8:00 PM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Baylor by 1.7 points, giving them a 54% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 63.6 combined points, with Baylor at 33.0 and Louisiana Tech at 30.7. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Baylor's margin lands between -19.7 and +24.4 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Baylor -1.7 / Louisiana Tech +1.7 Moneyline: Baylor -118 / Louisiana Tech +118 Win probability: Baylor 54.0% / Louisiana Tech 46.0% Projected total: 63.6 points Last recalculated: August 30, 2026 at 6:01 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Baylor: 1455.7, Louisiana Tech: 1497.7 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Baylor Louisiana Tech ----------------- ------ -------------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 travel_fatigue +4.0 +3.2 ncaa_efficiency +0.0 +0.0 blowout_hangover +0.0 +0.0 home_field_vector +4.3 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Louisiana Tech 30.7 -- Baylor 33.0 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th ------------- ----- ---- ---- ----- ----- Baylor margin -19.7 -9.4 +2.2 +13.7 +24.4 Total points 42.2 52.1 63.4 75.2 85.5 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: BAYLOR Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds -------------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- DJ Lagway QB Passing yards 226.5 142-317 Pass attempts 27.6 19-35 Completions 16.8 10-21 Passing TDs 1.42 76% 1+, 41% 2+ Rushing yards 19.1 -- Rushing TDs 0.13 12% 1+ Caden Knighten RB Rushing yards 49.2 8-92 Carries 10.6 5-17 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 17.5 -- Receptions 1.7 0-2 Receiving TDs 0.14 13% 1+ Michael Turner RB Rushing yards 49.2 8-79 Carries 10.6 5-15 Rushing TDs 0.16 15% 1+ Receiving yards 14.2 -- Receptions 2.5 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Gavin Freeman WR Rushing yards 10.9 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 46.4 11-64 Receptions 4.7 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.32 28% 1+ Matthew Klopfenstein TE Receiving yards 28.0 4-42 Receptions 2.6 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.21 19% 1+ Jadon Porter WR Receiving yards 24.0 -- Receptions 2.5 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.17 16% 1+ Tony Livingston TE Receiving yards 23.1 -- Receptions 1.7 -- Receiving TDs 0.12 12% 1+ Dre'lon Miller WR Rushing yards 22.2 -- Rushing TDs 0.11 10% 1+ Receiving yards 22.8 -- Receptions 2.6 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.11 10% 1+ Kedrick Walker LB Tackles 6.1 3-10 Sacks 0.31 27% 1+ Jacob Redding S Tackles 5.2 3-7 Ryan Davis LB Sacks 0.67 49% 1+, 14% 2+ LOUISIANA TECH Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds -------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Blake Baker QB Passing yards 172.8 88-284 Pass attempts 23.7 15-37 Completions 15.3 9-25 Passing TDs 0.60 45% 1+, 12% 2+ Rushing yards 31.1 -- Rushing TDs 0.36 30% 1+, 5% 2+ David Pierro WR Receiving yards 32.3 -- Receptions 2.2 -- Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Eli Finley TE Receiving yards 31.3 7-52 Receptions 3.1 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Jalen Mickens WR Receiving yards 22.5 -- Receptions 2.5 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Kolbe Fields LB Tackles 6.3 4-11 Jadon Mayfield LB Tackles 5.6 2-7 Sacks 0.25 22% 1+ Donovan Rieman DL Sacks 0.25 22% 1+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Baylor recent form: 1-4 over last 5 games Louisiana Tech recent form: 3-2 over last 5 games ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10230