Western Kentucky at Indiana NCAA, Week 3, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 19, 2026 at 8:00 PM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Indiana by 27.6 points, giving them a 93% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 45.8 combined points, with Indiana at 36.6 and Western Kentucky at 9.3. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Indiana's margin lands between +5.1 and +49.5 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Indiana -27.6 / Western Kentucky +27.6 Moneyline: Indiana -1322 / Western Kentucky +1322 Win probability: Indiana 93.0% / Western Kentucky 7.0% Projected total: 45.8 points Last recalculated: August 30, 2026 at 6:01 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Indiana: 1856.5, Western Kentucky: 1509.7 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Indiana Western Kentucky ----------------- ------- ---------------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 travel_fatigue +4.0 +2.3 ncaa_efficiency +0.0 +0.0 blowout_hangover +0.0 +0.0 home_field_vector +20.0 -- consecutive_road -- -15.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Western Kentucky 9.3 -- Indiana 36.6 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th -------------- ---- ----- ----- ----- ----- Indiana margin +5.1 +15.6 +27.3 +38.7 +49.5 Total points 24.1 34.4 45.8 57.2 67.9 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: INDIANA Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds -------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Josh Hoover QB Passing yards 261.3 177-324 Pass attempts 32.9 24-44 Completions 21.3 15-28 Passing TDs 1.67 81% 1+, 50% 2+ Rushing yards 4.6 -- Rushing TDs 0.09 9% 1+ Turbo Richard RB Rushing yards 65.5 24-132 Carries 12.0 6-17 Rushing TDs 0.69 50% 1+, 15% 2+ Receiving yards 13.6 -- Receptions 2.7 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Charlie Becker WR Receiving yards 56.3 21-95 Receptions 3.6 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.22 20% 1+ Shazz Preston WR Receiving yards 50.8 15-90 Receptions 3.6 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.29 25% 1+ Nick Marsh WR Rushing yards 10.1 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 47.2 12-75 Receptions 4.7 2-7 Receiving TDs 0.22 20% 1+ Khobie Martin RB Rushing yards 46.5 5-73 Carries 8.6 3-12 Rushing TDs 0.20 18% 1+ Rolijah Hardy LB Tackles 7.2 4-10 Joe Hjelle DL Tackles 4.3 3-6 Tobi Osunsanmi DL Sacks 0.60 45% 1+, 12% 2+ Stephen Daley DL Sacks 0.50 39% 1+, 9% 2+ WESTERN KENTUCKY Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------ --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Rodney Tisdale Jr. QB Passing yards 166.7 82-270 Pass attempts 29.4 20-42 Completions 18.8 12-28 Passing TDs 0.75 53% 1+, 17% 2+ Rushing yards 16.4 -- Rushing TDs 0.19 17% 1+ K.D. Hutchinson WR Rushing yards 13.9 -- Rushing TDs 0.11 10% 1+ Receiving yards 43.8 8-70 Receptions 5.5 4-7 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Ajay Allen RB Rushing yards 34.9 -- Carries 10.9 6-21 Rushing TDs 0.30 26% 1+ Receiving yards 15.8 -- Receptions 3.0 2-7 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Moussa Barry WR Receiving yards 32.9 -- Receptions 2.8 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.05 5% 1+ Kalib Hicks RB Rushing yards 25.2 -- Carries 9.0 4-15 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Cameron Flowers WR Receiving yards 24.7 -- Receptions 2.6 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.05 5% 1+ Lofton Howard TE Receiving yards 6.8 -- Receptions 1.4 2-2 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Jaylen Lewis DB Tackles 6.0 4-10 Dave Herard DB Tackles 4.5 2-6 Sacks 0.00 0% 1+ Zeiqui Lawton DT Sacks 0.21 19% 1+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Indiana recent form: 5-0 over last 5 games Western Kentucky recent form: 3-2 over last 5 games ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10231