Mississippi State at South Carolina NCAA, Week 3, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 19, 2026 at 8:15 PM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors South Carolina by 10.7 points, giving them a 73% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 55.6 combined points, with South Carolina at 32.9 and Mississippi State at 22.4. Simulating the game 10,000 times, South Carolina's margin lands between -11.5 and +32.6 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: South Carolina -10.7 / Mississippi State +10.7 Moneyline: South Carolina -273 / Mississippi State +273 Win probability: South Carolina 73.2% / Mississippi State 26.8% Projected total: 55.6 points Last recalculated: August 30, 2026 at 6:01 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- South Carolina: 1499.0, Mississippi State: 1400.2 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor South Carolina Mississippi State ----------------- -------------- ----------------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 travel_fatigue +4.0 +2.7 ncaa_efficiency +0.0 +0.0 blowout_hangover +0.0 +0.0 home_field_vector +9.3 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Mississippi State 22.4 -- South Carolina 32.9 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th --------------------- ----- ---- ----- ----- ----- South Carolina margin -11.5 -1.2 +10.7 +22.3 +32.6 Total points 34.4 44.2 55.3 66.3 76.2 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: SOUTH CAROLINA Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ---------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- LaNorris Sellers QB Passing yards 230.7 146-331 Pass attempts 28.2 20-37 Completions 16.8 10-20 Passing TDs 1.34 74% 1+, 39% 2+ Rushing yards 34.3 -- Rushing TDs 0.59 45% 1+, 12% 2+ Jayden Sellers WR Receiving yards 66.8 31-110 Receptions 4.2 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.28 24% 1+ Nyck Harbor WR Receiving yards 60.7 25-104 Receptions 3.2 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.86 58% 1+, 21% 2+ Christian Clark RB Rushing yards 59.1 18-112 Carries 9.5 4-17 Rushing TDs 0.25 22% 1+ Receiving yards 28.9 9-47 Receptions 2.3 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Matt Fuller RB Rushing yards 57.7 17-102 Carries 9.9 4-16 Rushing TDs 0.25 22% 1+ Receiving yards 18.2 -- Receptions 2.3 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Nitro Tuggle WR Receiving yards 46.4 11-76 Receptions 3.1 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.17 16% 1+ Brady Hunt TE Receiving yards 15.0 -- Receptions 2.5 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Max Drag TE Receiving yards 10.1 -- Receptions 1.4 2-2 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Justin Okoronkwo LB Tackles 5.8 3-8 Fred Johnson LB Tackles 5.4 2-8 Caleb Herring DE Sacks 0.50 39% 1+, 9% 2+ Drew Collins DE Sacks 0.40 33% 1+, 6% 2+ MISSISSIPPI STATE Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ----------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- AJ Swann QB Passing yards 209.9 126-357 Pass attempts 30.5 22-46 Completions 18.5 12-30 Passing TDs 1.17 69% 1+, 33% 2+ Rushing yards 5.5 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Fluff Bothwell RB Rushing yards 64.5 23-109 Carries 12.5 7-18 Rushing TDs 0.25 22% 1+ Receiving yards 17.2 -- Receptions 2.0 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Anthony Evans III WR Rushing yards 13.6 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 57.8 22-89 Receptions 5.1 3-8 Receiving TDs 0.18 17% 1+ Xavier Gayten RB Rushing yards 35.6 -- Carries 6.3 1-8 Rushing TDs 0.17 16% 1+ Receiving yards 11.1 -- Receptions 1.5 2-2 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Marquis Johnson WR Receiving yards 32.9 -- Receptions 3.5 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.10 10% 1+ Ayden Williams WR Receiving yards 25.1 -- Receptions 2.3 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Sam West TE Receiving yards 19.8 -- Receptions 1.9 0-2 Receiving TDs 0.32 27% 1+ Marcus Williams S Tackles 6.5 4-10 Isaac Smith S Tackles 6.4 4-10 Kalvin Dinkins DL Sacks 0.25 22% 1+ Derion Gullette LB Sacks 0.21 19% 1+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ South Carolina recent form: 1-4 over last 5 games Mississippi State recent form: 1-4 over last 5 games Head-to-head history: Season Away Home Winner ------ ------- ----- ------ 2023 MSST 30 SC 37 SC ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10232