Charlotte at App State NCAA, Week 3, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 19, 2026 at 10:00 PM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors App State by 15.2 points, giving them a 81% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 52.7 combined points, with App State at 34.0 and Charlotte at 18.7. Simulating the game 10,000 times, App State's margin lands between -6.8 and +37.5 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: App State -15.2 / Charlotte +15.2 Moneyline: App State -414 / Charlotte +414 Win probability: App State 80.5% / Charlotte 19.5% Projected total: 52.7 points Last recalculated: August 30, 2026 at 6:01 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- App State: 1388.6, Charlotte: 1236.9 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor App State Charlotte ----------------- --------- --------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 travel_fatigue +4.0 +2.0 ncaa_efficiency +0.0 +0.0 blowout_hangover -20.0 -20.0 home_field_vector +13.1 -- consecutive_road -- -15.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Charlotte 18.7 -- App State 34.0 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th ---------------- ---- ---- ----- ----- ----- App State margin -6.8 +3.6 +15.2 +27.0 +37.5 Total points 31.1 41.6 52.4 63.9 74.2 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: APP STATE Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ----------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Malachi Singleton QB Passing yards 135.5 51-236 Pass attempts 16.0 8-27 Completions 9.1 3-15 Passing TDs 0.77 54% 1+, 18% 2+ Rushing yards 29.3 -- Rushing TDs 0.15 14% 1+ Jaquari Lewis RB Rushing yards 56.5 15-112 Carries 12.1 6-23 Rushing TDs 0.60 45% 1+, 12% 2+ Receiving yards 20.0 0-37 Receptions 3.1 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Sam Mbake WR Receiving yards 38.6 3-62 Receptions 3.6 2-7 Receiving TDs 0.16 15% 1+ JMarion Burnette RB Rushing yards 35.2 -- Carries 9.6 4-14 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Alexander Sanchez WR Receiving yards 23.8 -- Receptions 1.9 -- Receiving TDs 0.18 17% 1+ Colton Phares LB Tackles 7.9 5-11 Cary Grant DB Tackles 4.2 2-7 Aiden Benton DL Sacks 0.38 31% 1+, 6% 2+ Caleb Sandstrom DL Sacks 0.25 22% 1+ CHARLOTTE Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ----------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Grayson Loftis QB Passing yards 189.8 106-310 Pass attempts 25.6 17-35 Completions 15.0 9-22 Passing TDs 0.92 60% 1+, 23% 2+ Rushing yards -1.8 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Jaden Barnes WR Receiving yards 67.2 32-146 Receptions 4.9 3-10 Receiving TDs 0.73 52% 1+, 17% 2+ Jariel Cobb RB Rushing yards 36.9 -- Carries 9.2 4-13 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 11.3 -- Receptions 2.2 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Derrick Eley WR Receiving yards 27.4 -- Receptions 1.2 1-1 Receiving TDs 0.20 18% 1+ Khamani Alexander RB Rushing yards 25.9 -- Carries 6.7 1-8 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Lane Wadle TE Receiving yards 20.8 -- Receptions 2.2 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Gus McGee TE Receiving yards 19.2 -- Receptions 2.3 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.12 12% 1+ Jaylen Hampton WR Receiving yards 15.8 -- Receptions 1.3 2-2 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Kadin Schmitz LB Tackles 6.1 3-10 Gavin Willis LB Tackles 5.7 3-9 Jaylon Johnson DL Sacks 0.14 13% 1+ Curtis Simpson DL Sacks 0.12 12% 1+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ App State recent form: 1-4 over last 5 games Charlotte recent form: 0-5 over last 5 games Head-to-head history: Season Away Home Winner ------ ------ ------ ------ 2025 APP 34 CLT 11 APP ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10233