Florida International at Florida Atlantic NCAA, Week 3, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 19, 2026 at 10:00 PM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Florida International by 2.3 points, giving them a 55% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 78.5 combined points, with Florida Atlantic at 38.2 and Florida International at 40.4. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Florida Atlantic's margin lands between -24.5 and +20.4 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Florida Atlantic +2.3 / Florida International -2.3 Moneyline: Florida Atlantic +124 / Florida International -124 Win probability: Florida Atlantic 44.7% / Florida International 55.3% Projected total: 78.5 points Last recalculated: August 30, 2026 at 6:02 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Florida Atlantic: 1349.1, Florida International: 1466.6 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Florida Atlantic Florida International ----------------- ---------------- --------------------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 travel_fatigue +4.0 +0.6 ncaa_efficiency +0.0 +0.0 blowout_hangover -20.0 -20.0 home_field_vector -2.7 -- consecutive_road -- -15.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Florida International 40.4 -- Florida Atlantic 38.2 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th ----------------------- ----- ----- ---- ---- ----- Florida Atlantic margin -24.5 -14.1 -2.4 +9.4 +20.4 Total points 57.0 67.3 78.5 89.9 100.0 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: FLORIDA ATLANTIC Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds -------------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Caden Veltkamp QB Passing yards 274.9 191-374 Pass attempts 36.3 28-49 Completions 24.0 18-34 Passing TDs 2.40 91% 1+, 69% 2+ Rushing yards 5.3 -- Rushing TDs 0.30 26% 1+ Kaden Shields-Dutton RB Rushing yards 67.7 27-114 Carries 9.9 4-15 Rushing TDs 0.87 58% 1+, 22% 2+ Receiving yards 23.9 4-40 Receptions 2.8 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.20 18% 1+ Easton Messer WR Receiving yards 63.4 28-95 Receptions 6.6 4-9 Receiving TDs 0.66 48% 1+, 14% 2+ Dominique Henry WR Receiving yards 45.7 10-89 Receptions 3.8 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.26 23% 1+ RJ Garcia II WR Receiving yards 27.9 -- Receptions 2.8 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Ethan Ervin RB Rushing yards 25.4 -- Carries 6.0 0-7 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Brooks Johnson TE Receiving yards 22.0 -- Receptions 2.3 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.16 15% 1+ Leon Hart Jr. LB Tackles 8.2 5-12 Jayden Sweeney S Tackles 4.8 2-7 Jay Crable DB Sacks 0.62 46% 1+, 13% 2+ Josh Roberts DB Sacks 0.38 31% 1+, 6% 2+ FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ---------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- JJ Kohl QB Passing yards 224.0 140-346 Pass attempts 28.2 20-43 Completions 17.4 12-27 Passing TDs 1.70 82% 1+, 51% 2+ Rushing yards 16.1 -- Rushing TDs 0.19 17% 1+ Sterling Joseph RB Rushing yards 56.9 16-131 Carries 6.6 1-8 Rushing TDs 0.78 54% 1+, 18% 2+ Anthony Carrie RB Rushing yards 42.7 2-56 Carries 9.3 4-11 Rushing TDs 0.44 35% 1+, 7% 2+ Receiving yards 13.2 -- Receptions 2.5 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Jojo Stone WR Rushing yards 6.5 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 40.6 5-56 Receptions 3.4 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.32 27% 1+ Maguire Anderson WR Receiving yards 36.1 0-62 Receptions 3.2 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.14 13% 1+ Kyle McNeal WR Receiving yards 33.8 -- Receptions 3.2 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.14 13% 1+ Jackson Verdugo TE Receiving yards 26.5 3-36 Receptions 2.1 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.21 19% 1+ Shamir Sterlin DB Tackles 5.6 4-9 Josiah Taylor LB Tackles 5.3 2-8 Kenton Simmons DE Sacks 0.62 46% 1+, 13% 2+ Dante Anderson DL Sacks 0.50 39% 1+, 9% 2+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Florida Atlantic recent form: 1-4 over last 5 games Florida International recent form: 4-1 over last 5 games Head-to-head history: Season Away Home Winner ------ ------ ------ ------ 2025 FAU 28 FIU 38 FIU 2024 FIU 20 FAU 38 FAU ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10234