East Carolina at Old Dominion NCAA, Week 3, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 19, 2026 at 10:00 PM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Old Dominion by 8.6 points, giving them a 69% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 54.7 combined points, with Old Dominion at 31.8 and East Carolina at 23.1. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Old Dominion's margin lands between -13.9 and +30.9 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Old Dominion -8.6 / East Carolina +8.6 Moneyline: Old Dominion -225 / East Carolina +225 Win probability: Old Dominion 69.2% / East Carolina 30.8% Projected total: 54.7 points Last recalculated: August 30, 2026 at 6:02 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Old Dominion: 1637.0, East Carolina: 1568.9 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Old Dominion East Carolina ----------------- ------------ ------------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 travel_fatigue +1.9 +3.7 ncaa_efficiency +0.0 +0.0 blowout_hangover +0.0 +0.0 home_field_vector +9.2 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: East Carolina 23.1 -- Old Dominion 31.8 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th ------------------- ----- ---- ---- ----- ----- Old Dominion margin -13.9 -3.1 +8.7 +20.3 +30.9 Total points 33.2 43.4 55.1 66.3 76.4 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: OLD DOMINION Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ----------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Quinn Henicle QB Passing yards 118.4 34-188 Pass attempts 20.5 12-33 Completions 10.3 4-16 Passing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Rushing yards 34.2 -- Rushing TDs 0.32 28% 1+ Devin Roche RB Rushing yards 53.2 12-100 Carries 11.6 6-18 Rushing TDs 0.28 24% 1+ Receiving yards 12.1 -- Receptions 2.1 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Maurki James RB Rushing yards 33.8 -- Carries 8.6 3-13 Rushing TDs 0.18 17% 1+ Receiving yards 14.8 -- Receptions 2.1 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ TJ Johnson WR Receiving yards 28.5 -- Receptions 2.0 -- Receiving TDs 0.27 23% 1+ Sidney Mbanasor WR Receiving yards 27.6 -- Receptions 2.3 -- Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Leon Haughton Jr. TE Receiving yards 22.7 -- Receptions 1.3 2-2 Receiving TDs 0.28 24% 1+ Mario Easterly S Tackles 5.8 4-8 Zion Frink CB Tackles 5.3 4-9 Hunter Malecki DL Sacks 0.62 46% 1+, 13% 2+ Javen Gibson DL Sacks 0.44 36% 1+, 7% 2+ EAST CAROLINA Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ---------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Mitch Griffis QB Passing yards 118.1 34-194 Pass attempts 18.5 10-27 Completions 12.2 6-19 Passing TDs 0.22 20% 1+ Rushing yards 7.9 -- Rushing TDs 0.22 20% 1+ Michael Allen RB Rushing yards 44.0 3-86 Carries 10.9 6-19 Rushing TDs 0.29 26% 1+ Receiving yards 19.8 0-39 Receptions 2.8 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.10 10% 1+ Ashton Gray RB Rushing yards 42.4 1-82 Carries 8.9 4-14 Rushing TDs 0.32 28% 1+ Landon Sides WR Receiving yards 39.3 4-74 Receptions 3.1 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Brock Spalding WR Receiving yards 34.5 -- Receptions 2.9 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.27 24% 1+ Kanen Hamlett TE Receiving yards 17.5 -- Receptions 2.7 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.20 18% 1+ Tyler Johnson WR Receiving yards 12.6 -- Receptions 1.2 1-1 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Zyeir Gamble DB Tackles 6.7 4-10 DJ Johnson Jr. LB Tackles 5.6 2-8 Kendrick DuJour DL Sacks 0.88 58% 1+, 22% 2+ Rion Roseborough DL Sacks 0.42 34% 1+, 7% 2+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Old Dominion recent form: 5-0 over last 5 games East Carolina recent form: 4-1 over last 5 games Head-to-head history: Season Away Home Winner ------ ------ ------ ------ 2024 ECU 20 ODU 14 ECU ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10235