Marshall at Missouri State NCAA, Week 3, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 19, 2026 at 10:30 PM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Missouri State by 0.7 points, giving them a 52% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 69.1 combined points, with Missouri State at 34.9 and Marshall at 34.3. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Missouri State's margin lands between -21.7 and +22.5 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Missouri State -0.7 / Marshall +0.7 Moneyline: Missouri State -107 / Marshall +107 Win probability: Missouri State 51.7% / Marshall 48.3% Projected total: 69.1 points Last recalculated: August 30, 2026 at 6:02 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Missouri State: 1423.8, Marshall: 1487.9 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Missouri State Marshall ----------------- -------------- -------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 travel_fatigue +3.5 +2.2 ncaa_efficiency +0.0 +0.0 blowout_hangover +0.0 +0.0 home_field_vector +9.7 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Marshall 34.3 -- Missouri State 34.9 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th --------------------- ----- ----- ---- ----- ----- Missouri State margin -21.7 -11.0 +0.8 +12.3 +22.5 Total points 47.5 57.7 69.4 80.5 90.9 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: MISSOURI STATE Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ----------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Skyler Locklear QB Passing yards 224.6 140-336 Pass attempts 27.4 18-38 Completions 15.8 10-22 Passing TDs 1.81 84% 1+, 54% 2+ Rushing yards 48.7 8-88 Rushing TDs 1.11 67% 1+, 31% 2+ Jmariyae Robinson WR Rushing yards 22.6 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 68.1 32-106 Receptions 4.1 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.98 62% 1+, 26% 2+ Makai Cope WR Receiving yards 40.0 4-60 Receptions 2.3 -- Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Ramone Green Jr. RB Rushing yards 35.1 -- Carries 6.0 0-8 Rushing TDs 0.14 13% 1+ Receiving yards 28.1 9-57 Receptions 2.7 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.27 24% 1+ Jeron Askren TE Receiving yards 25.1 1-50 Receptions 2.6 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.65 48% 1+, 14% 2+ Connor Lair RB Rushing yards 24.6 -- Carries 6.7 1-9 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 20.9 1-36 Receptions 2.1 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Dillon Hipp TE Receiving yards 10.7 -- Receptions 1.4 2-2 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Jared Lloyd LB Tackles 6.3 4-10 Dylan Dixson S Tackles 4.4 2-6 Caden Wiest DE Sacks 0.33 28% 1+ Malachi Madison DL Sacks 0.20 18% 1+ MARSHALL Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ----------------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Carlos Del Rio-Wilson QB Passing yards 230.1 146-312 Pass attempts 28.3 20-36 Completions 18.2 12-24 Passing TDs 1.44 76% 1+, 42% 2+ Rushing yards 66.7 26-102 Rushing TDs 0.52 41% 1+, 10% 2+ Adrian Norton WR Receiving yards 48.3 13-101 Receptions 3.9 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.57 43% 1+, 11% 2+ De'Andre Tamarez WR Receiving yards 42.6 7-65 Receptions 3.5 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.12 12% 1+ Jo'Shon Barbie RB Rushing yards 40.6 -- Carries 9.0 4-14 Rushing TDs 0.64 47% 1+, 13% 2+ Receiving yards 11.7 -- Receptions 1.4 2-2 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Toby Payne TE Receiving yards 39.4 16-79 Receptions 3.3 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.16 15% 1+ Xayvion Turner-Bradshaw WR Receiving yards 32.9 -- Receptions 2.4 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Boogie Trotter CB Tackles 6.4 4-10 Javae Gilmore LB Tackles 6.1 3-9 Sacks 0.19 17% 1+ Braydin Ward DL Sacks 0.60 45% 1+, 12% 2+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Missouri State recent form: 2-3 over last 5 games Marshall recent form: 1-4 over last 5 games Head-to-head history: Season Away Home Winner ------ ------- ------- ------ 2025 MOST 21 MRSH 20 MOST ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10236