Western Michigan at Rice NCAA, Week 3, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 19, 2026 at 11:00 PM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Western Michigan by 10.4 points, giving them a 73% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 55.2 combined points, with Rice at 22.4 and Western Michigan at 32.7. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Rice's margin lands between -32.1 and +11.6 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Rice +10.4 / Western Michigan -10.4 Moneyline: Rice +265 / Western Michigan -265 Win probability: Rice 27.4% / Western Michigan 72.6% Projected total: 55.2 points Last recalculated: August 30, 2026 at 6:02 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Rice: 1352.7, Western Michigan: 1577.5 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Rice Western Michigan ----------------- ----- ---------------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 travel_fatigue +3.5 +0.9 ncaa_efficiency +0.0 +0.0 blowout_hangover -20.0 +0.0 home_field_vector +8.1 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Western Michigan 32.7 -- Rice 22.4 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th ------------ ----- ----- ----- ---- ----- Rice margin -32.1 -22.1 -10.4 +1.2 +11.6 Total points 33.8 43.9 55.3 66.4 77.0 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: RICE Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds -------------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Quinton Jackson RB Rushing yards 62.5 21-127 Carries 12.1 6-20 Rushing TDs 0.48 38% 1+, 8% 2+ D'Andre Hardeman Jr. RB Rushing yards 41.1 -- Carries 8.9 4-12 Rushing TDs 0.24 21% 1+ Payton Matthews WR Receiving yards 29.5 -- Receptions 1.3 2-2 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ James Falk TE Receiving yards 12.4 -- Receptions 1.4 2-2 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Stone Combs LB Tackles 5.8 3-7 AJ Brown DE Tackles 5.5 4-8 Daveon Hook S Sacks 0.25 22% 1+ Joseph Mutombo DL Sacks 0.21 19% 1+ WESTERN MICHIGAN Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------ --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Broc Lowry QB Passing yards 174.3 90-247 Pass attempts 21.8 13-29 Completions 14.3 8-21 Passing TDs 0.94 61% 1+, 24% 2+ Rushing yards 77.7 37-110 Rushing TDs 1.25 71% 1+, 35% 2+ Jalen Buckley RB Rushing yards 81.4 40-159 Carries 12.4 7-19 Rushing TDs 1.60 80% 1+, 47% 2+ Receiving yards 19.0 -- Receptions 2.2 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.18 16% 1+ Aveion Chenault WR Rushing yards 24.0 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 37.6 2-62 Receptions 2.5 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.17 16% 1+ Baylin Brooks WR Receiving yards 34.5 -- Receptions 2.4 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Ofa Mataele RB Rushing yards 26.0 -- Carries 5.8 -- Rushing TDs 0.18 16% 1+ Receiving yards 7.1 -- Receptions 2.1 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Jarvarius Sims CB Tackles 4.9 3-8 Micah Davis S Tackles 4.9 2-6 DeJuan Echoles Jr. DE Sacks 0.38 31% 1+, 6% 2+ Dakari Frazier DL Sacks 0.10 10% 1+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Rice recent form: 1-4 over last 5 games Western Michigan recent form: 5-0 over last 5 games ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10237