Georgia Southern at Jacksonville State NCAA, Week 3, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 19, 2026 at 11:00 PM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Jacksonville State by 3.1 points, giving them a 57% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 53.8 combined points, with Jacksonville State at 28.5 and Georgia Southern at 25.2. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Jacksonville State's margin lands between -18.7 and +25.3 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Jacksonville State -3.1 / Georgia Southern +3.1 Moneyline: Jacksonville State -133 / Georgia Southern +133 Win probability: Jacksonville State 57.1% / Georgia Southern 42.9% Projected total: 53.8 points Last recalculated: August 30, 2026 at 6:02 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Jacksonville State: 1477.0, Georgia Southern: 1504.1 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Jacksonville State Georgia Southern ----------------- ------------------ ---------------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 travel_fatigue +0.8 +3.1 ncaa_efficiency +0.0 +0.0 blowout_hangover -20.0 +0.0 home_field_vector +19.1 -- consecutive_road -- -15.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Georgia Southern 25.2 -- Jacksonville State 28.5 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th ------------------------- ----- ---- ---- ----- ----- Jacksonville State margin -18.7 -8.5 +3.4 +15.0 +25.3 Total points 32.3 43.0 53.9 64.7 74.9 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: JACKSONVILLE STATE Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------ --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Caden Creel QB Passing yards 161.7 77-208 Pass attempts 24.0 16-30 Completions 13.9 8-17 Passing TDs 0.73 52% 1+, 17% 2+ Rushing yards 62.1 22-120 Rushing TDs 0.52 40% 1+, 10% 2+ Deondre Johnson WR Receiving yards 82.0 46-127 Receptions 3.5 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.68 49% 1+, 15% 2+ Jalen Likely RB Rushing yards 63.3 22-104 Carries 9.8 4-16 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 21.9 2-35 Receptions 2.3 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Justus Savage RB Rushing yards 55.9 15-86 Carries 8.7 3-12 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Ronnel Johnson WR Receiving yards 43.8 8-79 Receptions 3.1 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.11 11% 1+ Franklin Baret Jr. WR Receiving yards 21.9 -- Receptions 2.0 -- Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Mac Sanders LB Tackles 6.9 4-10 Walker O'Steen LB Tackles 6.3 4-10 Tae Floyd DL Sacks 0.67 49% 1+, 14% 2+ Quay Hood DL Sacks 0.30 26% 1+ GEORGIA SOUTHERN Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds --------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Max Johnson QB Passing yards 164.9 81-249 Pass attempts 26.7 18-42 Completions 16.4 10-26 Passing TDs 0.50 39% 1+, 9% 2+ Taeo Todd RB Rushing yards 39.8 -- Carries 9.0 4-15 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 19.5 -- Receptions 2.9 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Ashton Hollins WR Receiving yards 37.2 2-54 Receptions 2.0 -- Receiving TDs 0.26 23% 1+ David Mbadinga RB Rushing yards 34.5 -- Carries 9.0 4-12 Rushing TDs 0.18 16% 1+ Receiving yards 10.8 -- Receptions 1.4 2-2 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Taylor Bradshaw WR Receiving yards 17.0 -- Receptions 2.2 -- Receiving TDs 0.10 9% 1+ Alex Taylor WR Receiving yards 14.1 -- Receptions 1.3 2-2 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Anthony Bynum LB Tackles 5.7 3-8 Sacks 0.31 27% 1+ Brandon Tyson LB Tackles 5.7 3-8 MJ Stroud LB Sacks 0.50 39% 1+, 9% 2+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Jacksonville State recent form: 2-3 over last 5 games Georgia Southern recent form: 4-1 over last 5 games Head-to-head history: Season Away Home Winner ------ ------- ------- ------ 2025 JXST 34 GASO 41 GASO ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10238