Florida at Auburn NCAA, Week 3, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 19, 2026 at 11:00 PM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Auburn by 3.0 points, giving them a 57% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 39.1 combined points, with Auburn at 21.3 and Florida at 18.0. The real sportsbook market sees it differently: Auburn favored by 1.5 points, a 1.5-point gap from the model's own number -- worth noting, not automatically a sign either side is wrong. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Auburn's margin lands between -19.1 and +25.7 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Auburn -3.0 / Florida +3.0 Moneyline: Auburn -132 / Florida +132 Win probability: Auburn 57.0% / Florida 43.0% Projected total: 39.1 points Last recalculated: August 30, 2026 at 6:02 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Auburn: 1471.7, Florida: 1493.6 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Auburn Florida ----------------- ------ ------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 travel_fatigue +4.0 +3.2 ncaa_efficiency +0.0 +0.0 blowout_hangover +0.0 +0.0 home_field_vector +4.6 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ Consensus spread: Auburn -1.5 / Florida +1.5 Consensus moneyline: Auburn -110 / Florida -110 Market no-vig win probability: Auburn 50.0% / Florida 50.0% Spread range across books: -1.5 to -0.5 (2 books) Per-book lines (as of 2026-08-10T12:20:04.571716+00:00 -- STALE, hasn't refreshed recently): Moneyline (EV% is against the model's own win probability, not a cross-book average): Book Auburn EV% Florida EV% ---------- ------ ----- ------- ------ draftkings -110 +8.7% -110 -17.8% mybookieag -113 +7.3% -112 -18.5% Spread: Book Auburn Florida ---------- ----------- ----------- draftkings -1.5 (-105) +1.5 (-115) mybookieag -0.5 (-110) +0.5 (-110) Line movement: opened Auburn +0.0 (July 13, 2026 at 7:21 AM UTC), now -1.5 (August 10, 2026 at 12:20 PM UTC), 115 snapshots on record. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Florida 18.0 -- Auburn 21.3 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th ------------- ----- ---- ---- ----- ----- Auburn margin -19.1 -8.5 +3.0 +15.1 +25.7 Total points 17.5 27.9 39.2 50.7 61.1 Probability Auburn covers the market spread: 53.7% ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: AUBURN Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ----------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Byrum Brown QB Passing yards 284.9 201-340 Pass attempts 28.6 20-38 Completions 19.0 13-24 Passing TDs 2.51 92% 1+, 71% 2+ Rushing yards 98.0 58-134 Rushing TDs 1.37 74% 1+, 40% 2+ Jeremiah Cobb RB Rushing yards 78.6 38-134 Carries 12.5 7-21 Rushing TDs 0.20 18% 1+ Receiving yards 22.9 3-40 Receptions 2.6 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Keshaun Singleton WR Receiving yards 77.0 41-122 Receptions 4.4 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.56 43% 1+, 11% 2+ Nykahi Davenport RB Rushing yards 69.9 29-116 Carries 10.4 5-15 Rushing TDs 0.97 62% 1+, 26% 2+ Receiving yards 17.3 -- Receptions 2.1 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Jeremiah Koger WR Receiving yards 66.7 31-107 Receptions 4.1 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.65 48% 1+, 14% 2+ Chas Nimrod WR Receiving yards 66.5 31-117 Receptions 3.8 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.15 14% 1+ Jake Johnson TE Receiving yards 25.4 1-45 Receptions 2.9 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.12 11% 1+ Jonathan Echols TE Receiving yards 17.6 -- Receptions 1.8 0-2 Receiving TDs 0.20 18% 1+ Xavier Atkins LB Tackles 8.1 5-11 Sacks 0.88 58% 1+, 22% 2+ Fred Gaskin III S Tackles 4.6 2-7 Cody Sigler DL Sacks 0.44 36% 1+, 7% 2+ FLORIDA Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------ --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Jadan Baugh RB Rushing yards 53.0 12-106 Carries 14.9 10-23 Rushing TDs 0.53 41% 1+, 10% 2+ Receiving yards 14.5 -- Receptions 3.1 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.18 16% 1+ Vernell Brown III WR Receiving yards 51.8 16-87 Receptions 4.0 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Eric Singleton Jr. WR Rushing yards 12.7 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 48.9 13-82 Receptions 4.6 2-8 Receiving TDs 0.13 12% 1+ Dallas Wilson WR Receiving yards 48.6 13-105 Receptions 3.5 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.76 53% 1+, 18% 2+ London Montgomery RB Rushing yards 47.1 6-71 Carries 12.9 8-19 Rushing TDs 0.45 36% 1+, 7% 2+ Receiving yards 9.4 -- Receptions 2.4 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Luke Harpring TE Receiving yards 43.5 20-70 Receptions 2.5 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Lacota Dippre TE Receiving yards 33.7 10-52 Receptions 2.1 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.19 17% 1+ Alfonzo Allen Jr. S Tackles 7.1 4-12 Myles Graham LB Tackles 6.4 4-9 Jayden Woods LB Sacks 0.44 36% 1+, 7% 2+ Kamran James DL Sacks 0.38 31% 1+, 6% 2+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Auburn recent form: 1-4 over last 5 games Florida recent form: 1-4 over last 5 games ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10239