Georgia State at UCF NCAA, Week 3, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 19, 2026 at 11:00 PM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors UCF by 13.9 points, giving them a 79% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 44.8 combined points, with UCF at 29.4 and Georgia State at 15.4. Simulating the game 10,000 times, UCF's margin lands between -8.3 and +36.4 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: UCF -13.9 / Georgia State +13.9 Moneyline: UCF -366 / Georgia State +366 Win probability: UCF 78.6% / Georgia State 21.4% Projected total: 44.8 points Last recalculated: August 30, 2026 at 6:02 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- UCF: 1419.3, Georgia State: 1270.0 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor UCF Georgia State ----------------- ----- ------------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 travel_fatigue -1.7 +2.1 ncaa_efficiency +0.0 +0.0 blowout_hangover -20.0 +0.0 home_field_vector +20.0 -- consecutive_road -- -15.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Georgia State 15.4 -- UCF 29.4 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th ------------ ---- ---- ----- ----- ----- UCF margin -8.3 +2.4 +14.1 +25.7 +36.4 Total points 23.3 33.5 44.9 56.1 66.0 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: UCF Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------ --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Alonza Barnett III QB Passing yards 244.7 160-332 Pass attempts 27.9 19-39 Completions 16.2 10-22 Passing TDs 2.49 92% 1+, 71% 2+ Rushing yards 53.1 13-110 Rushing TDs 1.56 79% 1+, 46% 2+ Dylan Wade TE Receiving yards 63.0 39-133 Receptions 3.7 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.82 56% 1+, 20% 2+ Duke Watson RB Rushing yards 41.6 0-62 Carries 9.8 4-15 Rushing TDs 0.20 18% 1+ Receiving yards 8.9 -- Receptions 2.1 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Agyeman Addae RB Rushing yards 40.6 -- Carries 6.6 1-8 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Duane Thomas Jr. WR Rushing yards 9.5 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 40.3 5-65 Receptions 4.4 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Jonathan Bibbs WR Rushing yards 12.4 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 39.9 4-70 Receptions 2.9 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.33 28% 1+ Waden Charles WR Receiving yards 34.2 -- Receptions 3.1 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Dylan Burk TE Receiving yards 31.3 7-46 Receptions 2.3 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Lewis Carter LB Tackles 8.1 5-12 Rashad Henry LB Tackles 5.9 3-10 Horace Lockett DT Sacks 0.33 28% 1+ Jahleel Culbreath LB Sacks 0.25 22% 1+ GEORGIA STATE Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds --------------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Cameran Brown QB Passing yards 133.4 49-212 Pass attempts 24.1 16-38 Completions 15.2 9-24 Passing TDs 1.09 66% 1+, 30% 2+ Rushing yards 25.0 -- Rushing TDs 0.43 35% 1+, 7% 2+ Grant Hollier TE Receiving yards 46.5 23-70 Receptions 2.9 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.41 33% 1+, 6% 2+ Kyle Washington WR Receiving yards 26.0 -- Receptions 2.3 -- Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ DJ Riles WR Receiving yards 24.3 -- Receptions 2.8 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.12 11% 1+ Jaylin Marshall WR Receiving yards 22.9 -- Receptions 2.0 -- Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Dennis Murray Jr. RB Rushing yards 21.3 -- Carries 5.3 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 18.6 -- Receptions 2.5 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.19 17% 1+ Jabriel Rhodes-Nelson DE Tackles 4.7 3-8 Sacks 0.19 17% 1+ Jaden Kelly LB Tackles 4.4 2-6 Richard Kramer DE Sacks 0.50 39% 1+, 9% 2+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ UCF recent form: 1-4 over last 5 games Georgia State recent form: 0-5 over last 5 games ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10240