Ohio at South Alabama NCAA, Week 3, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 19, 2026 at 11:00 PM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Ohio by 8.7 points, giving them a 69% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 50.5 combined points, with South Alabama at 20.9 and Ohio at 29.5. Simulating the game 10,000 times, South Alabama's margin lands between -30.6 and +13.4 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. Injury watch: Joseph Watson (Questionable). ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: South Alabama +8.7 / Ohio -8.7 Moneyline: South Alabama +226 / Ohio -226 Win probability: South Alabama 30.7% / Ohio 69.3% Projected total: 50.5 points Last recalculated: August 30, 2026 at 6:02 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- South Alabama: 1416.8, Ohio: 1606.5 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor South Alabama Ohio ----------------- ------------- ---- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 travel_fatigue +2.2 +1.9 ncaa_efficiency +0.0 +0.0 blowout_hangover -20.0 +0.0 home_field_vector +3.1 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Ohio 29.5 -- South Alabama 20.9 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th -------------------- ----- ----- ---- ---- ----- South Alabama margin -30.6 -19.9 -8.7 +3.0 +13.4 Total points 28.9 39.3 50.4 61.6 71.5 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: SOUTH ALABAMA Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ---------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Bishop Davenport QB Passing yards 168.9 85-231 Pass attempts 25.7 17-32 Completions 16.9 10-20 Passing TDs 0.76 53% 1+, 18% 2+ Rushing yards 31.7 -- Rushing TDs 1.01 64% 1+, 27% 2+ Keenan Phillips RB Rushing yards 53.4 12-65 Carries 11.7 6-17 Rushing TDs 0.25 22% 1+ Receiving yards 13.0 -- Receptions 2.0 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ PJ Martin RB Rushing yards 44.8 4-69 Carries 9.2 4-13 Rushing TDs 0.10 9% 1+ Receiving yards 19.9 0-44 Receptions 2.6 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Brendan Jenkins WR Receiving yards 34.3 -- Receptions 2.5 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.25 22% 1+ Anthony Eager WR Receiving yards 33.8 -- Receptions 3.2 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Micah Woods WR Receiving yards 22.4 -- Receptions 2.0 -- Receiving TDs 0.14 14% 1+ Rod Gibbs TE Receiving yards 9.5 -- Receptions 2.1 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.21 19% 1+ Tirrell Johnson LB Tackles 5.5 2-8 Caleb Dozier LB Tackles 5.3 2-9 Emmanuel Waller DL Sacks 0.14 13% 1+ Tre'Mon Henry LB Sacks 0.00 0% 1+ OHIO Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Duncan Brune RB Rushing yards 53.1 12-98 Carries 10.2 4-15 Rushing TDs 0.59 45% 1+, 12% 2+ Receiving yards 13.4 -- Receptions 1.4 2-2 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Eian Pugh WR Receiving yards 28.1 -- Receptions 2.0 -- Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Victor Rosa RB Rushing yards 14.8 -- Carries 3.8 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 23.6 4-54 Receptions 2.8 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.16 15% 1+ Dom Dorwart WR Receiving yards 18.6 -- Receptions 2.3 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Michael Molnar LB Tackles 7.1 4-10 Charlie Christopher LB Tackles 6.9 4-10 Derek Reagans DT Sacks 0.38 31% 1+, 6% 2+ Joseph Marsh DE Sacks 0.29 25% 1+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ South Alabama recent form: 3-2 over last 5 games Ohio recent form: 4-1 over last 5 games Head-to-head history: Season Away Home Winner ------ ------ ------- ------ 2024 USA 20 OHIO 27 OHIO Injury/hazard flags: Player Pos Team Status ------------- --- ---- ------------ Joseph Watson OL OHIO Questionable ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10241