UConn at Southern Miss NCAA, Week 3, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 19, 2026 at 11:00 PM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors UConn by 3.0 points, giving them a 57% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 68.2 combined points, with Southern Miss at 32.7 and UConn at 35.6. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Southern Miss's margin lands between -25.1 and +19.6 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Southern Miss +3.0 / UConn -3.0 Moneyline: Southern Miss +132 / UConn -132 Win probability: Southern Miss 43.1% / UConn 56.9% Projected total: 68.2 points Last recalculated: August 30, 2026 at 6:02 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Southern Miss: 1375.8, UConn: 1537.7 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Southern Miss UConn ----------------- ------------- ----- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 travel_fatigue +4.0 +0.7 ncaa_efficiency +0.0 +0.0 blowout_hangover +0.0 -20.0 home_field_vector +10.7 -- consecutive_road -- -15.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: UConn 35.6 -- Southern Miss 32.7 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th -------------------- ----- ----- ---- ---- ----- Southern Miss margin -25.1 -15.0 -3.0 +8.7 +19.6 Total points 46.7 56.8 68.4 79.9 90.0 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: SOUTHERN MISS Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds -------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Landry Lyddy QB Passing yards 210.9 127-384 Pass attempts 26.3 18-53 Completions 16.5 10-35 Passing TDs 0.69 50% 1+, 15% 2+ Rushing yards 8.9 -- Rushing TDs 0.34 29% 1+ Brandon Hood RB Rushing yards 63.5 22-140 Carries 10.5 5-17 Rushing TDs 0.16 15% 1+ Receiving yards 22.0 2-37 Receptions 2.2 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Robert Briggs RB Rushing yards 49.7 9-76 Carries 7.9 2-11 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 22.3 3-38 Receptions 2.4 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.18 17% 1+ Davis Dalton WR Receiving yards 38.7 3-58 Receptions 2.0 -- Receiving TDs 0.29 25% 1+ Melvin Spriggs LB Tackles 4.9 2-9 Sacks 0.31 27% 1+ Mathis Haygood LB Tackles 4.4 2-8 Jameer Lewis DL Sacks 0.25 22% 1+ UCONN Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds --------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Kalieb Osborne QB Passing yards 104.6 20-168 Pass attempts 17.3 8-28 Completions 10.3 4-17 Passing TDs 0.37 31% 1+, 5% 2+ Rushing yards 32.9 -- Rushing TDs 0.12 12% 1+ Dashun Reeder RB Rushing yards 59.6 18-104 Carries 9.1 4-14 Rushing TDs 0.34 29% 1+ Kenji Christian RB Rushing yards 52.2 11-85 Carries 9.7 4-13 Rushing TDs 0.34 29% 1+ Receiving yards 23.8 4-43 Receptions 2.3 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.17 16% 1+ Emanuel Ross WR Receiving yards 30.5 -- Receptions 2.8 0-5 Receiving TDs 0.18 16% 1+ Ryder Treadway WR Receiving yards 29.9 -- Receptions 2.3 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.38 32% 1+, 6% 2+ Shamar Porter WR Receiving yards 28.6 -- Receptions 2.0 -- Receiving TDs 0.11 10% 1+ K'Von Sherman LB Tackles 7.2 4-10 Sacks 0.44 36% 1+, 7% 2+ Luke Murphy LB Tackles 4.5 2-7 Esean Carter DT Sacks 0.38 31% 1+, 6% 2+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Southern Miss recent form: 1-4 over last 5 games UConn recent form: 4-1 over last 5 games ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10242