Nevada at Middle Tennessee NCAA, Week 3, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 19, 2026 at 11:00 PM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Middle Tennessee by 2.4 points, giving them a 56% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 48.6 combined points, with Middle Tennessee at 25.5 and Nevada at 23.0. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Middle Tennessee's margin lands between -19.6 and +24.6 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Middle Tennessee -2.4 / Nevada +2.4 Moneyline: Middle Tennessee -125 / Nevada +125 Win probability: Middle Tennessee 55.5% / Nevada 44.5% Projected total: 48.6 points Last recalculated: August 31, 2026 at 12:02 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Middle Tennessee: 1337.4, Nevada: 1371.3 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Middle Tennessee Nevada ----------------- ---------------- ------ elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 travel_fatigue +0.0 +0.0 ncaa_efficiency +0.0 +0.0 blowout_hangover +0.0 +0.0 home_field_vector +7.7 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Nevada 23.0 -- Middle Tennessee 25.5 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th ----------------------- ----- ---- ---- ----- ----- Middle Tennessee margin -19.6 -9.3 +2.5 +14.1 +24.6 Total points 27.0 37.1 48.5 59.5 69.9 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: MIDDLE TENNESSEE Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Roman Gagliano QB Passing yards 211.3 127-338 Pass attempts 31.3 22-45 Completions 18.9 12-28 Passing TDs 1.48 77% 1+, 44% 2+ Rushing yards 35.3 -- Rushing TDs 0.42 34% 1+, 7% 2+ Cam'ron Lacy WR Rushing yards 11.8 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 49.6 14-88 Receptions 4.0 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.29 26% 1+ Landon Collins WR Receiving yards 43.2 8-69 Receptions 4.0 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.20 18% 1+ DJ Taylor RB Rushing yards 34.4 -- Carries 6.0 0-7 Rushing TDs 0.41 34% 1+, 6% 2+ Receiving yards 11.8 -- Receptions 2.1 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.25 22% 1+ Antonio Martin RB Rushing yards 34.2 -- Carries 6.6 1-8 Rushing TDs 0.25 22% 1+ AJ Jones WR Receiving yards 26.7 -- Receptions 3.4 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.49 39% 1+, 9% 2+ Jackson Lowe CB Tackles 4.4 2-6 Reggie Johnson LB Tackles 4.1 1-6 Sacks 0.38 31% 1+, 6% 2+ Zeion Simpson-Smith DT Sacks 0.25 22% 1+ NEVADA Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds -------------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Carter Jones QB Passing yards 172.7 88-258 Pass attempts 24.3 16-34 Completions 15.5 10-22 Passing TDs 1.01 64% 1+, 27% 2+ Rushing yards 10.3 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Herschel Turner RB Rushing yards 43.3 2-78 Carries 8.7 3-13 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 10.8 -- Receptions 1.5 2-2 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Marshaun Brown WR Receiving yards 37.0 1-68 Receptions 3.2 1-6 Receiving TDs 0.25 22% 1+ Gary Givens III WR Receiving yards 27.3 -- Receptions 2.2 -- Receiving TDs 0.22 19% 1+ Daijon Calimon WR Receiving yards 26.4 -- Receptions 2.0 -- Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Dominic Kelley RB Rushing yards 16.5 -- Carries 5.3 -- Rushing TDs 0.11 10% 1+ EJ Smith LB Tackles 4.5 2-7 Jeremy Naborne-Owens LB Tackles 4.0 1-6 Sacks 0.25 22% 1+ Poasa Utu LB Sacks 0.30 26% 1+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Middle Tennessee recent form: 2-3 over last 5 games Nevada recent form: 2-3 over last 5 games Head-to-head history: Season Away Home Winner ------ ------- ------ ------ 2025 MTSU 14 NEV 13 MTSU ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10243