LSU at Ole Miss NCAA, Week 3, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 19, 2026 at 11:30 PM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Ole Miss by 18.1 points, giving them a 84% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 52.2 combined points, with Ole Miss at 35.1 and LSU at 16.9. The real sportsbook market sees it differently: Ole Miss favored by 2.5 points, a 15.6-point gap from the model's own number -- worth noting, not automatically a sign either side is wrong. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Ole Miss's margin lands between -4.1 and +40.1 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Ole Miss -18.1 / LSU +18.1 Moneyline: Ole Miss -543 / LSU +543 Win probability: Ole Miss 84.4% / LSU 15.6% Projected total: 52.2 points Last recalculated: August 30, 2026 at 6:02 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Ole Miss: 1755.0, LSU: 1557.3 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Ole Miss LSU ----------------- -------- ----- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 travel_fatigue +4.0 +2.6 ncaa_efficiency +0.0 +0.0 blowout_hangover +0.0 +0.0 home_field_vector +14.7 -- consecutive_road -- -15.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ Consensus spread: Ole Miss -2.5 / LSU +2.5 Consensus moneyline: Ole Miss -130 / LSU +108 Market no-vig win probability: Ole Miss 54.0% / LSU 46.0% Spread range across books: -2.5 to -2.5 (2 books) Per-book lines (as of 2026-08-30T06:20:04.034610+00:00): Moneyline (EV% is against the model's own win probability, not a cross-book average): Book Ole Miss EV% LSU EV% ---------- -------- ------ ---- ------ draftkings -125 +52.0% +105 -68.1% fanduel -130 +49.4% +108 -67.6% mybookieag -131 +48.9% +103 -68.4% Spread: Book Ole Miss LSU ---------- ----------- ----------- betrivers -2.5 (-110) +2.5 (-113) draftkings -1.5 (-115) +1.5 (-105) fanduel -2.5 (-110) +2.5 (-110) Line movement: opened Ole Miss -1.5 (July 13, 2026 at 7:21 AM UTC), now -2.5 (August 30, 2026 at 6:20 AM UTC), 194 snapshots on record. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: LSU 16.9 -- Ole Miss 35.1 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th --------------- ---- ---- ----- ----- ----- Ole Miss margin -4.1 +6.7 +18.2 +29.9 +40.1 Total points 30.3 40.7 52.1 63.3 73.6 Probability Ole Miss covers the market spread: 82.0% ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: OLE MISS Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------ --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Trinidad Chambliss QB Passing yards 258.9 175-324 Pass attempts 33.5 25-42 Completions 21.3 15-27 Passing TDs 1.26 72% 1+, 36% 2+ Rushing yards 29.9 -- Rushing TDs 0.52 41% 1+, 10% 2+ Kewan Lacy RB Rushing yards 60.1 19-109 Carries 14.9 10-23 Rushing TDs 1.35 74% 1+, 39% 2+ Receiving yards 9.7 -- Receptions 2.4 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Johntay Cook II WR Receiving yards 48.6 13-85 Receptions 4.2 2-7 Receiving TDs 0.11 10% 1+ Makhi Frazier RB Rushing yards 45.8 5-75 Carries 12.2 6-16 Rushing TDs 0.10 10% 1+ Receiving yards 11.1 -- Receptions 2.7 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Deuce Alexander WR Rushing yards 10.3 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 39.2 4-73 Receptions 3.0 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.11 10% 1+ Darrell Gill Jr. WR Receiving yards 31.7 -- Receptions 2.9 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.32 28% 1+ Caleb Odom TE Receiving yards 25.5 2-46 Receptions 2.3 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.11 10% 1+ Keaton Thomas LB Tackles 7.3 4-10 Luke Ferrelli LB Tackles 6.5 4-9 Suntarine Perkins LB Sacks 0.50 39% 1+, 9% 2+ Jonathan Maldonado DE Sacks 0.44 36% 1+, 7% 2+ LSU Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds --------------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Sam Leavitt QB Passing yards 222.4 138-315 Pass attempts 31.8 23-42 Completions 19.4 13-27 Passing TDs 1.19 70% 1+, 33% 2+ Rushing yards 36.7 -- Rushing TDs 0.45 36% 1+, 8% 2+ Jackson Harris WR Receiving yards 87.3 52-134 Receptions 4.7 2-7 Receiving TDs 1.20 70% 1+, 34% 2+ Jayce Brown WR Rushing yards 35.0 -- Rushing TDs 0.22 20% 1+ Receiving yards 65.8 30-112 Receptions 3.7 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.44 35% 1+, 7% 2+ Tre' Brown WR Receiving yards 54.5 19-108 Receptions 3.0 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.33 28% 1+ Harlem Berry RB Rushing yards 47.6 6-72 Carries 10.8 5-16 Rushing TDs 0.11 11% 1+ Receiving yards 13.4 -- Receptions 2.4 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Dilin Jones RB Rushing yards 45.4 4-70 Carries 11.1 6-16 Rushing TDs 0.26 23% 1+ Receiving yards 8.0 -- Receptions 2.3 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Trey'Dez Green TE Receiving yards 40.3 16-75 Receptions 3.6 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.95 61% 1+, 25% 2+ Malachi Thomas TE Receiving yards 21.3 -- Receptions 2.0 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.14 13% 1+ Ty Benefield S Tackles 7.5 5-10 Davhon Keys LB Tackles 7.2 4-11 Princewill Umanmielen DE Sacks 1.00 63% 1+, 26% 2+ Stephiylan Green DT Sacks 0.36 30% 1+, 5% 2+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Ole Miss recent form: 4-1 over last 5 games LSU recent form: 2-3 over last 5 games Head-to-head history: Season Away Home Winner ------ ------- ------- ------ 2025 LSU 19 MISS 24 MISS 2024 MISS 26 LSU 29 LSU 2023 LSU 49 MISS 55 MISS ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10244