West Virginia at Virginia NCAA, Week 3, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 19, 2026 at 11:30 PM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Virginia by 16.4 points, giving them a 82% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 43.3 combined points, with Virginia at 29.7 and West Virginia at 13.4. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Virginia's margin lands between -6.0 and +38.4 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Virginia -16.4 / West Virginia +16.4 Moneyline: Virginia -464 / West Virginia +464 Win probability: Virginia 82.3% / West Virginia 17.7% Projected total: 43.3 points Last recalculated: August 30, 2026 at 6:02 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Virginia: 1620.2, West Virginia: 1438.6 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Virginia West Virginia ----------------- -------- ------------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 travel_fatigue +4.0 +3.6 ncaa_efficiency +0.0 +0.0 blowout_hangover +0.0 -20.0 home_field_vector -0.3 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: West Virginia 13.4 -- Virginia 29.7 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th --------------- ---- ---- ----- ----- ----- Virginia margin -6.0 +4.8 +16.1 +27.9 +38.4 Total points 21.3 31.8 43.3 54.5 64.6 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: VIRGINIA Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------ --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Beau Pribula QB Passing yards 223.0 139-330 Pass attempts 26.3 18-39 Completions 16.6 10-25 Passing TDs 0.98 63% 1+, 26% 2+ Rushing yards 46.9 6-108 Rushing TDs 0.49 39% 1+, 9% 2+ Jacquon Gibson WR Rushing yards 16.0 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 66.9 31-121 Receptions 5.8 4-8 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Jekail Middlebrook RB Rushing yards 66.2 25-103 Carries 12.9 8-18 Rushing TDs 0.44 35% 1+, 7% 2+ Receiving yards 29.9 10-59 Receptions 3.2 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.33 28% 1+ Da'Shawn Martin WR Receiving yards 56.4 21-83 Receptions 3.4 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.65 48% 1+, 14% 2+ Xavier Brown RB Rushing yards 44.1 3-63 Carries 8.9 4-11 Rushing TDs 0.12 12% 1+ Receiving yards 22.9 3-51 Receptions 2.3 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.44 35% 1+, 7% 2+ Rico Flores Jr. WR Receiving yards 42.2 7-66 Receptions 3.4 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Dakota Twitty TE Receiving yards 30.3 6-48 Receptions 2.9 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ John Rogers TE Receiving yards 26.2 2-44 Receptions 2.1 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Kam Robinson LB Tackles 8.6 6-11 Sacks 0.29 25% 1+ Jaylen Jones S Tackles 5.5 3-8 Nnanna Anyanwu DE Sacks 0.62 46% 1+, 13% 2+ WEST VIRGINIA Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds -------------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Scotty Fox Jr. QB Passing yards 154.1 70-260 Pass attempts 24.8 16-39 Completions 15.1 9-25 Passing TDs 0.67 49% 1+, 15% 2+ Rushing yards 17.8 -- Rushing TDs 0.19 18% 1+ Cam Cook RB Rushing yards 82.8 42-122 Carries 17.1 12-22 Rushing TDs 1.22 70% 1+, 34% 2+ Receiving yards 19.6 0-35 Receptions 2.6 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ DJ Epps WR Receiving yards 43.6 8-92 Receptions 4.2 2-8 Receiving TDs 0.32 27% 1+ John Neider WR Receiving yards 38.4 3-58 Receptions 2.9 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.16 15% 1+ Josh Sapp TE Receiving yards 17.9 -- Receptions 1.6 -- Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Ryan Ward TE Receiving yards 13.1 -- Receptions 1.7 -- Receiving TDs 0.21 19% 1+ Tyler Stolsky LB Tackles 8.3 6-13 Kamari Wilson S Tackles 7.0 4-9 Sacks 0.12 12% 1+ Zeke Durham-Campbell DL Sacks 0.44 36% 1+, 7% 2+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Virginia recent form: 4-1 over last 5 games West Virginia recent form: 2-3 over last 5 games ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10245