Colorado at Northwestern NCAA, Week 3, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 19, 2026 at 11:30 PM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Northwestern by 10.8 points, giving them a 73% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 45.5 combined points, with Northwestern at 28.1 and Colorado at 17.4. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Northwestern's margin lands between -11.2 and +33.1 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Northwestern -10.8 / Colorado +10.8 Moneyline: Northwestern -273 / Colorado +273 Win probability: Northwestern 73.2% / Colorado 26.8% Projected total: 45.5 points Last recalculated: August 30, 2026 at 6:02 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Northwestern: 1498.9, Colorado: 1399.3 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Northwestern Colorado ----------------- ------------ -------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 travel_fatigue +4.0 +2.5 ncaa_efficiency +0.0 +0.0 blowout_hangover +0.0 +0.0 home_field_vector +8.7 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Colorado 17.4 -- Northwestern 28.1 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th ------------------- ----- ---- ----- ----- ----- Northwestern margin -11.2 -1.3 +10.5 +22.4 +33.1 Total points 23.8 34.2 45.4 56.8 67.2 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: NORTHWESTERN Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ----------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Nicco Marchiol QB Passing yards 169.2 85-206 Pass attempts 26.5 18-28 Completions 17.1 11-20 Passing TDs 0.34 29% 1+ Rushing yards 6.1 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Caleb Komolafe RB Rushing yards 80.2 39-124 Carries 13.8 8-18 Rushing TDs 1.10 67% 1+, 30% 2+ Receiving yards 19.8 0-39 Receptions 2.6 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.16 15% 1+ Joseph Himon II RB Rushing yards 56.8 16-88 Carries 10.3 4-17 Rushing TDs 0.12 12% 1+ Receiving yards 18.2 -- Receptions 2.5 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Griffin Wilde WR Receiving yards 51.7 16-82 Receptions 4.9 3-8 Receiving TDs 0.80 55% 1+, 19% 2+ Hayden Eligon II WR Receiving yards 44.8 9-83 Receptions 3.8 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.13 12% 1+ Ricky Ahumaraeze WR Receiving yards 29.5 -- Receptions 1.8 -- Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Alex Honig TE Receiving yards 23.3 -- Receptions 1.9 0-2 Receiving TDs 0.19 17% 1+ Robert Fitzgerald DB Tackles 7.6 6-12 Braydon Brus LB Tackles 7.2 4-11 Migo Jackson DL Sacks 0.33 28% 1+ Michael Kilbane DL Sacks 0.31 27% 1+ COLORADO Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Julian Lewis QB Passing yards 163.8 80-281 Pass attempts 27.5 19-45 Completions 16.3 10-27 Passing TDs 0.84 57% 1+, 20% 2+ Rushing yards 4.9 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Danny Scudero WR Receiving yards 71.7 36-148 Receptions 5.6 4-9 Receiving TDs 0.73 52% 1+, 17% 2+ Kam Perry WR Receiving yards 54.5 19-91 Receptions 3.5 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.31 27% 1+ Joseph Williams WR Receiving yards 50.7 15-86 Receptions 4.0 2-7 Receiving TDs 0.42 34% 1+, 7% 2+ Micah Welch RB Rushing yards 39.9 -- Carries 9.6 4-13 Rushing TDs 0.38 32% 1+, 6% 2+ Receiving yards 10.9 -- Receptions 2.0 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ DeKalon Taylor RB Rushing yards 39.4 -- Carries 8.9 4-13 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 25.5 6-42 Receptions 3.1 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.68 49% 1+, 15% 2+ Zach Atkins TE Receiving yards 16.7 -- Receptions 2.6 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Gideon ESPN Lampron LB Tackles 10.0 7-12 Naeten Mitchell DB Tackles 7.0 5-9 Santana Hopper DL Sacks 0.44 36% 1+, 7% 2+ Vili Taufatofua DL Sacks 0.38 31% 1+, 6% 2+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Northwestern recent form: 2-3 over last 5 games Colorado recent form: 0-5 over last 5 games ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10246