Virginia Tech at Maryland NCAA, Week 3, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 19, 2026 at 11:30 PM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Maryland by 6.3 points, giving them a 64% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 48.7 combined points, with Maryland at 27.5 and Virginia Tech at 21.3. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Maryland's margin lands between -15.8 and +28.4 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Maryland -6.3 / Virginia Tech +6.3 Moneyline: Maryland -180 / Virginia Tech +180 Win probability: Maryland 64.2% / Virginia Tech 35.8% Projected total: 48.7 points Last recalculated: August 30, 2026 at 6:02 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Maryland: 1388.3, Virginia Tech: 1374.5 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Maryland Virginia Tech ----------------- -------- ------------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 travel_fatigue +2.6 +3.7 ncaa_efficiency +0.0 +0.0 blowout_hangover +0.0 -20.0 home_field_vector +4.0 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Virginia Tech 21.3 -- Maryland 27.5 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th --------------- ----- ---- ---- ----- ----- Maryland margin -15.8 -5.8 +6.0 +17.6 +28.4 Total points 27.1 37.3 48.8 60.1 70.5 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: MARYLAND Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds --------------------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Malik Washington QB Passing yards 244.0 160-356 Pass attempts 37.5 29-49 Completions 22.0 16-30 Passing TDs 1.14 68% 1+, 32% 2+ Rushing yards 37.3 -- Rushing TDs 0.25 22% 1+ Na'eem Abdul-Rahim Gladding WR Receiving yards 56.3 21-96 Receptions 3.7 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.13 12% 1+ DeJuan Williams RB Rushing yards 52.9 12-73 Carries 10.6 5-14 Rushing TDs 0.33 28% 1+ Receiving yards 35.7 16-72 Receptions 3.6 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.17 15% 1+ Chris Durr Jr. WR Receiving yards 44.0 8-69 Receptions 4.1 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.26 23% 1+ Kaleb Webb WR Receiving yards 42.5 7-71 Receptions 2.8 0-5 Receiving TDs 0.13 12% 1+ Harry Dalton III RB Rushing yards 35.9 -- Carries 5.2 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Dorian Fleming TE Receiving yards 30.7 7-48 Receptions 3.3 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.17 15% 1+ Preston Howard TE Receiving yards 19.5 -- Receptions 2.2 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Daniel Wingate LB Tackles 7.6 4-10 Lavain Scruggs DB Tackles 6.1 4-9 Zahir Mathis DL Sacks 0.62 46% 1+, 13% 2+ Sidney Stewart DL Sacks 0.38 31% 1+, 6% 2+ VIRGINIA TECH Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------ --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Ethan Grunkemeyer QB Passing yards 173.7 89-238 Pass attempts 24.8 16-35 Completions 16.3 10-23 Passing TDs 1.03 64% 1+, 28% 2+ Rushing yards -0.9 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Marcellous Hawkins RB Rushing yards 81.1 40-143 Carries 10.8 6-17 Rushing TDs 0.12 12% 1+ Receiving yards 16.8 -- Receptions 2.5 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.16 15% 1+ Bill Davis RB Rushing yards 72.1 31-122 Carries 11.8 6-15 Rushing TDs 0.37 31% 1+, 5% 2+ Receiving yards 22.1 3-37 Receptions 2.4 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Que'Sean Brown WR Receiving yards 53.5 18-113 Receptions 4.3 2-7 Receiving TDs 0.74 52% 1+, 17% 2+ Ayden Greene WR Receiving yards 48.9 13-79 Receptions 2.9 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.37 31% 1+, 5% 2+ Marlion Jackson WR Receiving yards 47.9 12-84 Receptions 2.9 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.37 31% 1+, 5% 2+ Luke Reynolds TE Receiving yards 22.5 -- Receptions 2.9 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Ja'Ricous Hairston TE Receiving yards 15.6 -- Receptions 2.1 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.39 32% 1+, 6% 2+ Kaleb Spencer LB Tackles 6.6 4-9 Noah Chambers LB Tackles 5.5 2-7 Kemari Copeland DL Sacks 0.44 36% 1+, 7% 2+ Jason Abbey DL Sacks 0.25 22% 1+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Maryland recent form: 0-5 over last 5 games Virginia Tech recent form: 1-4 over last 5 games ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10247