BYU at Colorado State NCAA, Week 3, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 19, 2026 at 11:30 PM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors BYU by 19.3 points, giving them a 86% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 53.1 combined points, with Colorado State at 16.9 and BYU at 36.2. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Colorado State's margin lands between -41.7 and +2.9 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Colorado State +19.3 / BYU -19.3 Moneyline: Colorado State +607 / BYU -607 Win probability: Colorado State 14.1% / BYU 85.9% Projected total: 53.1 points Last recalculated: August 30, 2026 at 6:02 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Colorado State: 1315.6, BYU: 1684.1 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Colorado State BYU ----------------- -------------- ---- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 travel_fatigue +4.0 +3.0 ncaa_efficiency +0.0 +0.0 blowout_hangover -20.0 +0.0 home_field_vector +9.2 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: BYU 36.2 -- Colorado State 16.9 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th --------------------- ----- ----- ----- ---- ---- Colorado State margin -41.7 -31.2 -19.1 -7.5 +2.9 Total points 31.7 41.8 53.4 64.5 74.6 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: COLORADO STATE Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ---------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Darius Curry QB Passing yards 183.6 99-311 Pass attempts 26.5 18-46 Completions 16.7 10-29 Passing TDs 0.89 59% 1+, 22% 2+ Rushing yards 11.5 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Mel Brown RB Rushing yards 50.5 9-85 Carries 9.1 4-13 Rushing TDs 0.39 32% 1+, 6% 2+ Tay Lanier WR Receiving yards 36.0 0-62 Receptions 3.7 2-7 Receiving TDs 0.23 21% 1+ Tommy Maher WR Receiving yards 35.0 -- Receptions 3.2 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Juice Vereen TE Receiving yards 34.4 10-56 Receptions 2.9 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.48 38% 1+, 8% 2+ Lavon Brown WR Receiving yards 27.9 -- Receptions 2.7 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Jace Bellah DB Tackles 6.5 4-12 Jake Jarmolowich DB Tackles 6.3 4-8 Lemondre Joe DB Sacks 0.25 22% 1+ Paul Tangelo LB Sacks 0.25 22% 1+ BYU Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ---------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Bear Bachmeier QB Passing yards 244.7 160-345 Pass attempts 30.2 22-37 Completions 19.6 14-25 Passing TDs 0.93 60% 1+, 24% 2+ Rushing yards 32.7 -- Rushing TDs 0.53 41% 1+, 10% 2+ LJ Martin RB Rushing yards 83.1 42-165 Carries 14.2 8-24 Rushing TDs 1.53 78% 1+, 45% 2+ Receiving yards 27.6 8-46 Receptions 3.2 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Sione Moa RB Rushing yards 46.7 6-67 Carries 9.2 4-13 Rushing TDs 0.45 36% 1+, 8% 2+ Receiving yards 22.0 2-37 Receptions 2.7 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Jojo Phillips WR Receiving yards 33.9 -- Receptions 2.8 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Walker Lyons TE Receiving yards 32.3 8-51 Receptions 2.4 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.13 12% 1+ Tiger Bachmeier WR Receiving yards 21.5 -- Receptions 2.0 -- Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Cade Uluave LB Tackles 8.2 6-14 Sacks 0.38 31% 1+, 6% 2+ Faletau Satuala S Tackles 6.9 4-10 Bodie Schoonover DE Sacks 0.38 31% 1+, 6% 2+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Colorado State recent form: 0-5 over last 5 games BYU recent form: 4-1 over last 5 games ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10248