Michigan State at Notre Dame NCAA, Week 3, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 19, 2026 at 11:30 PM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Notre Dame by 28.3 points, giving them a 93% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 57.3 combined points, with Notre Dame at 42.7 and Michigan State at 14.6. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Notre Dame's margin lands between +5.8 and +50.6 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Notre Dame -28.3 / Michigan State +28.3 Moneyline: Notre Dame -1411 / Michigan State +1411 Win probability: Notre Dame 93.4% / Michigan State 6.6% Projected total: 57.3 points Last recalculated: August 30, 2026 at 6:02 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Notre Dame: 1786.8, Michigan State: 1391.0 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Notre Dame Michigan State ----------------- ---------- -------------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 travel_fatigue -1.8 +3.7 ncaa_efficiency +0.0 +0.0 blowout_hangover +0.0 +0.0 home_field_vector +4.4 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Michigan State 14.6 -- Notre Dame 42.7 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th ----------------- ---- ----- ----- ----- ----- Notre Dame margin +5.8 +16.2 +27.8 +39.7 +50.6 Total points 35.5 45.9 57.2 69.0 79.3 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: NOTRE DAME Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ---------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- CJ Carr QB Passing yards 225.2 141-328 Pass attempts 25.5 17-34 Completions 16.4 10-22 Passing TDs 2.19 89% 1+, 64% 2+ Rushing yards 8.4 -- Rushing TDs 0.29 25% 1+ Aneyas Williams RB Rushing yards 67.2 26-112 Carries 8.2 2-12 Rushing TDs 1.33 73% 1+, 38% 2+ Jordan Faison WR Receiving yards 57.6 22-93 Receptions 3.8 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.34 29% 1+ Mylan Graham WR Receiving yards 38.4 3-59 Receptions 2.6 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Nolan James Jr. RB Rushing yards 34.4 -- Carries 5.9 0-7 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Quincy Porter WR Receiving yards 31.7 -- Receptions 2.0 -- Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Jack Larsen TE Receiving yards 25.1 1-41 Receptions 1.4 2-2 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Ty Washington TE Receiving yards 22.6 -- Receptions 2.6 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.32 27% 1+ Drayk Bowen LB Tackles 6.0 3-10 Brauntae Johnson S Tackles 5.2 3-7 Boubacar Traore DL Sacks 0.69 50% 1+, 15% 2+ Keon Keeley DL Sacks 0.50 39% 1+, 9% 2+ MICHIGAN STATE Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Alessio Milivojevic QB Passing yards 183.5 99-301 Pass attempts 25.3 16-41 Completions 15.9 10-26 Passing TDs 1.01 64% 1+, 27% 2+ Rushing yards 0.9 -- Rushing TDs 0.10 10% 1+ Cam Edwards RB Rushing yards 42.5 1-67 Carries 13.3 8-18 Rushing TDs 0.65 48% 1+, 14% 2+ Receiving yards 14.8 -- Receptions 2.9 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.08 8% 1+ Chrishon McCray WR Receiving yards 39.5 4-60 Receptions 3.1 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.34 29% 1+ KK Smith WR Receiving yards 33.3 -- Receptions 2.2 -- Receiving TDs 0.37 31% 1+, 5% 2+ Marvis Parrish RB Rushing yards 33.0 -- Carries 9.3 4-12 Rushing TDs 0.07 7% 1+ Receiving yards 9.9 -- Receptions 2.7 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Dion Crawford LB Tackles 7.1 4-10 Sacks 0.44 36% 1+, 7% 2+ Nikai Martinez DB Tackles 6.3 4-9 Eli Coenen DL Sacks 0.17 15% 1+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Notre Dame recent form: 5-0 over last 5 games Michigan State recent form: 1-4 over last 5 games ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10249