New Mexico at Oklahoma NCAA, Week 3, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 19, 2026 at 11:30 PM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Oklahoma by 9.7 points, giving them a 71% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 37.3 combined points, with Oklahoma at 23.7 and New Mexico at 13.9. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Oklahoma's margin lands between -12.2 and +31.7 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Oklahoma -9.7 / New Mexico +9.7 Moneyline: Oklahoma -248 / New Mexico +248 Win probability: Oklahoma 71.2% / New Mexico 28.8% Projected total: 37.3 points Last recalculated: August 30, 2026 at 6:02 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Oklahoma: 1638.8, New Mexico: 1555.7 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Oklahoma New Mexico ----------------- -------- ---------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 travel_fatigue +4.0 +1.9 ncaa_efficiency +0.0 +0.0 blowout_hangover +0.0 +0.0 home_field_vector +7.2 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: New Mexico 13.9 -- Oklahoma 23.7 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th --------------- ----- ---- ----- ----- ----- Oklahoma margin -12.2 -1.6 +10.0 +21.5 +31.7 Total points 15.9 26.5 37.5 48.7 59.0 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: OKLAHOMA Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------ --- --------------- ----- ------------------- John Mateer QB Passing yards 230.2 146-311 Pass attempts 31.4 22-38 Completions 18.9 12-23 Passing TDs 1.01 64% 1+, 27% 2+ Rushing yards 33.4 -- Rushing TDs 0.38 32% 1+, 6% 2+ Isaiah Sategna III WR Rushing yards 16.2 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 73.7 38-123 Receptions 4.7 2-7 Receiving TDs 0.66 48% 1+, 14% 2+ Trell Harris WR Receiving yards 62.6 27-116 Receptions 4.5 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.27 23% 1+ Rocky Beers TE Receiving yards 51.5 28-91 Receptions 3.2 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.95 62% 1+, 25% 2+ Xavier Robinson RB Rushing yards 51.3 10-97 Carries 10.0 4-15 Rushing TDs 0.59 44% 1+, 12% 2+ Receiving yards 16.2 -- Receptions 2.5 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.17 16% 1+ Tory Blaylock RB Rushing yards 46.4 5-84 Carries 10.6 5-17 Rushing TDs 0.15 14% 1+ Receiving yards 16.2 -- Receptions 2.6 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Parker Livingstone WR Receiving yards 44.3 9-79 Receptions 2.5 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.40 33% 1+, 6% 2+ Hayden Hansen TE Receiving yards 27.7 4-41 Receptions 2.4 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.16 15% 1+ Owen Heinecke LB Tackles 6.8 4-10 Kip Lewis LB Tackles 6.3 4-10 Sacks 0.44 36% 1+, 7% 2+ Danny Okoye DL Sacks 0.50 39% 1+, 9% 2+ NEW MEXICO Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ---------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Jack Layne QB Passing yards 168.7 84-251 Pass attempts 23.1 14-27 Completions 14.4 8-18 Passing TDs 0.60 45% 1+, 12% 2+ Rushing yards 19.8 -- Rushing TDs 0.20 18% 1+ Troy Omeire WR Receiving yards 41.9 6-67 Receptions 2.6 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.39 32% 1+, 6% 2+ Shawn Miller WR Receiving yards 32.5 -- Receptions 2.6 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.11 11% 1+ Cade Keith TE Receiving yards 28.9 5-60 Receptions 2.7 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.27 23% 1+ Kiefer Sibley RB Rushing yards 28.6 -- Carries 8.0 2-11 Rushing TDs 0.38 32% 1+, 6% 2+ Scottre Humphrey RB Rushing yards 23.2 -- Carries 8.8 3-14 Rushing TDs 0.25 22% 1+ Receiving yards 7.1 -- Receptions 1.5 2-2 Receiving TDs 0.22 20% 1+ Simon Mapa TE Receiving yards 19.1 -- Receptions 1.4 2-2 Receiving TDs 0.47 38% 1+, 8% 2+ Zhaiel Smith WR Receiving yards 18.4 -- Receptions 1.2 1-1 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Jaxton Eck LB Tackles 9.1 6-14 Tavian Combs S Tackles 5.9 4-9 Elijah Brody DE Sacks 0.25 22% 1+ Mercury Swaim LB Sacks 0.25 22% 1+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Oklahoma recent form: 4-1 over last 5 games New Mexico recent form: 4-1 over last 5 games ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10250