Kennesaw State at Tennessee NCAA, Week 3, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 19, 2026 at 11:45 PM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Tennessee by 11.6 points, giving them a 75% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 69.9 combined points, with Tennessee at 40.6 and Kennesaw State at 29.1. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Tennessee's margin lands between -10.6 and +33.7 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Tennessee -11.6 / Kennesaw State +11.6 Moneyline: Tennessee -296 / Kennesaw State +296 Win probability: Tennessee 74.8% / Kennesaw State 25.2% Projected total: 69.9 points Last recalculated: August 30, 2026 at 6:01 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Tennessee: 1584.2, Kennesaw State: 1515.8 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Tennessee Kennesaw State ----------------- --------- -------------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 travel_fatigue +2.9 +2.7 ncaa_efficiency +0.0 +0.0 blowout_hangover +0.0 -20.0 home_field_vector +20.0 -- consecutive_road -- -15.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Kennesaw State 29.1 -- Tennessee 40.6 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th ---------------- ----- ---- ----- ----- ----- Tennessee margin -10.6 -0.1 +11.4 +22.7 +33.7 Total points 48.1 58.2 69.8 81.3 91.3 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: TENNESSEE Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ----------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Ryan Staub QB Passing yards 161.3 77-262 Pass attempts 23.8 15-40 Completions 13.8 8-23 Passing TDs 0.75 53% 1+, 17% 2+ Rushing yards 19.1 -- Rushing TDs 0.33 28% 1+ DeSean Bishop RB Rushing yards 106.7 66-163 Carries 14.1 8-18 Rushing TDs 2.06 87% 1+, 61% 2+ Receiving yards 32.7 13-66 Receptions 2.8 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Javin Gordon RB Rushing yards 58.1 17-86 Carries 9.6 4-13 Rushing TDs 0.34 29% 1+ Receiving yards 28.0 8-49 Receptions 2.7 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.23 20% 1+ Ethan Davis TE Receiving yards 48.0 24-88 Receptions 3.4 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.28 25% 1+ Braylon Staley WR Receiving yards 47.3 12-78 Receptions 4.8 3-8 Receiving TDs 0.53 41% 1+, 10% 2+ Mike Matthews WR Receiving yards 42.9 7-64 Receptions 3.9 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.26 23% 1+ Trent Thomas TE Receiving yards 21.3 -- Receptions 2.1 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Radarious Jackson WR Receiving yards 13.3 -- Receptions 1.6 -- Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ DJ Burks DB Tackles 7.3 5-10 Arion Carter LB Tackles 7.2 4-12 Jordan Norman DL Sacks 0.75 53% 1+, 17% 2+ Daevin Hobbs DL Sacks 0.38 31% 1+, 6% 2+ KENNESAW STATE Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------ --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Rickie Collins QB Passing yards 199.6 115-311 Pass attempts 29.4 21-43 Completions 16.9 10-25 Passing TDs 0.82 56% 1+, 20% 2+ Rushing yards 24.5 -- Rushing TDs 0.17 15% 1+ Zion Booker WR Receiving yards 46.1 10-75 Receptions 4.9 3-8 Receiving TDs 0.13 12% 1+ Javon Rogers WR Receiving yards 40.6 5-82 Receptions 2.0 -- Receiving TDs 0.15 14% 1+ Davis Bryson WR Rushing yards 2.6 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 24.0 -- Receptions 2.2 -- Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Gerard Bullock Jr. TE Receiving yards 21.4 -- Receptions 2.7 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.08 7% 1+ Baron Hopson LB Tackles 9.4 6-13 Tywon Christopher LB Tackles 8.3 6-11 Devin Morgan DL Sacks 0.44 36% 1+, 7% 2+ Kody Jones DB Sacks 0.25 22% 1+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Tennessee recent form: 2-3 over last 5 games Kennesaw State recent form: 3-2 over last 5 games ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10251