UTSA at Texas NCAA, Week 3, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 20, 2026 at 12:00 AM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Texas by 15.6 points, giving them a 81% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 72.2 combined points, with Texas at 44.0 and UTSA at 28.3. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Texas's margin lands between -6.4 and +37.5 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Texas -15.6 / UTSA +15.6 Moneyline: Texas -431 / UTSA +431 Win probability: Texas 81.2% / UTSA 18.8% Projected total: 72.2 points Last recalculated: August 30, 2026 at 6:01 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Texas: 1720.3, UTSA: 1551.8 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Texas UTSA ----------------- ----- ---- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 travel_fatigue +4.0 +3.8 ncaa_efficiency +0.0 +0.0 blowout_hangover +0.0 +0.0 home_field_vector +20.0 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: UTSA 28.3 -- Texas 44.0 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th ------------ ---- ---- ----- ----- ----- Texas margin -6.4 +4.0 +15.9 +27.4 +37.5 Total points 50.8 61.2 72.5 83.7 93.9 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: TEXAS Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------ --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Arch Manning QB Passing yards 231.0 147-327 Pass attempts 32.5 24-40 Completions 20.1 14-26 Passing TDs 2.12 88% 1+, 63% 2+ Rushing yards 29.7 -- Rushing TDs 0.71 51% 1+, 16% 2+ Ryan Wingo WR Rushing yards 16.6 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 62.2 27-116 Receptions 4.4 2-7 Receiving TDs 0.50 40% 1+, 9% 2+ Raleek Brown RB Rushing yards 60.4 19-124 Carries 13.9 8-18 Rushing TDs 0.19 17% 1+ Receiving yards 19.7 0-33 Receptions 3.0 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.19 17% 1+ Cam Coleman WR Receiving yards 58.3 23-105 Receptions 4.7 2-7 Receiving TDs 0.50 40% 1+, 9% 2+ Hollywood Smothers RB Rushing yards 55.5 14-104 Carries 12.7 7-19 Rushing TDs 0.19 17% 1+ Receiving yards 16.0 -- Receptions 3.3 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Emmett Mosley V WR Receiving yards 46.9 11-76 Receptions 3.5 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.50 40% 1+, 9% 2+ Michael Masunas TE Receiving yards 24.9 1-38 Receptions 2.4 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.41 34% 1+, 6% 2+ Rasheem Biles LB Tackles 9.4 6-14 Sacks 0.56 43% 1+, 11% 2+ Jelani McDonald DB Tackles 6.7 4-10 Brad Spence LB Sacks 0.25 22% 1+ UTSA Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------ --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Owen McCown QB Passing yards 241.2 157-332 Pass attempts 29.5 21-38 Completions 20.0 14-27 Passing TDs 2.40 91% 1+, 69% 2+ Rushing yards 3.9 -- Rushing TDs 0.11 11% 1+ Will Henderson III RB Rushing yards 54.0 13-99 Carries 11.0 6-18 Rushing TDs 0.45 36% 1+, 8% 2+ Receiving yards 13.6 -- Receptions 2.2 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.15 14% 1+ David Amador II WR Rushing yards 4.3 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 42.1 6-74 Receptions 4.3 2-7 Receiving TDs 0.45 36% 1+, 7% 2+ AJ Wilson Jr. WR Receiving yards 41.8 6-67 Receptions 3.2 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.22 20% 1+ Brandon High Jr. RB Rushing yards 31.9 -- Carries 8.8 3-13 Rushing TDs 0.15 14% 1+ DJ Allen Jr. WR Receiving yards 29.3 -- Receptions 2.6 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.45 36% 1+, 7% 2+ Brandon Tucker LB Tackles 3.6 0-6 James Walley Jr. LB Tackles 3.3 0-5 Sacks 0.33 28% 1+ Elijah Baldwin LB Sacks 0.44 36% 1+, 7% 2+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Texas recent form: 4-1 over last 5 games UTSA recent form: 3-2 over last 5 games Head-to-head history: Season Away Home Winner ------ ------ ------ ------ 2024 UTSA 7 TEX 56 TEX ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10252