Arkansas State at TCU NCAA, Week 3, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 20, 2026 at 12:00 AM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors TCU by 11.0 points, giving them a 74% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 48.6 combined points, with TCU at 29.7 and Arkansas State at 18.8. Simulating the game 10,000 times, TCU's margin lands between -11.2 and +33.1 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: TCU -11.0 / Arkansas State +11.0 Moneyline: TCU -279 / Arkansas State +279 Win probability: TCU 73.6% / Arkansas State 26.4% Projected total: 48.6 points Last recalculated: August 30, 2026 at 6:01 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- TCU: 1562.6, Arkansas State: 1469.6 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor TCU Arkansas State ----------------- ----- -------------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 travel_fatigue +4.0 +2.7 ncaa_efficiency +0.0 +0.0 blowout_hangover +0.0 +0.0 home_field_vector +18.8 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Arkansas State 18.8 -- TCU 29.7 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th ------------ ----- ---- ----- ----- ----- TCU margin -11.2 -0.7 +11.0 +22.6 +33.1 Total points 27.0 37.3 48.5 59.9 69.6 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: TCU Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds -------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Jeremy Payne RB Rushing yards 71.2 30-140 Carries 11.9 6-22 Rushing TDs 0.55 42% 1+, 11% 2+ Receiving yards 26.2 7-44 Receptions 2.9 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.28 24% 1+ Jordan Dwyer WR Receiving yards 44.9 9-81 Receptions 4.1 2-7 Receiving TDs 0.57 44% 1+, 11% 2+ Jeremy Scott WR Receiving yards 40.6 5-80 Receptions 3.1 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.46 37% 1+, 8% 2+ Ed Small WR Receiving yards 38.9 3-77 Receptions 3.9 2-8 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Jon Denman RB Rushing yards 37.8 -- Carries 8.7 3-12 Rushing TDs 0.41 34% 1+, 7% 2+ Jamel Johnson S Tackles 6.5 4-8 Michael Short LB Tackles 5.3 2-10 Ansel Din-Mbuh DT Sacks 0.31 27% 1+ Koron Hayward LB Sacks 0.31 27% 1+ ARKANSAS STATE Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds -------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Chauncy Cobb WR Receiving yards 58.7 23-98 Receptions 4.9 3-8 Receiving TDs 0.14 13% 1+ Devin Spencer RB Rushing yards 46.9 6-83 Carries 10.0 4-15 Rushing TDs 0.17 15% 1+ Receiving yards 14.4 -- Receptions 2.7 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Kenyon Clay RB Rushing yards 46.0 5-80 Carries 11.1 6-16 Rushing TDs 0.17 15% 1+ Receiving yards 18.6 -- Receptions 3.0 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.17 15% 1+ Hunter Summers WR Receiving yards 43.3 8-62 Receptions 3.7 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.42 35% 1+, 7% 2+ Jaylen Bonelli WR Receiving yards 26.9 -- Receptions 2.6 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.28 25% 1+ Jabari Bush TE Receiving yards 23.6 -- Receptions 2.5 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ AG McGhee S Tackles 6.7 4-10 Brandon Greil S Tackles 5.4 3-9 Shakai Woods DT Sacks 0.25 22% 1+ Sultan Badmus DE Sacks 0.17 15% 1+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ TCU recent form: 3-2 over last 5 games Arkansas State recent form: 3-2 over last 5 games ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10253