UAB at Louisiana NCAA, Week 3, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 20, 2026 at 12:00 AM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Louisiana by 10.8 points, giving them a 73% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 59.1 combined points, with Louisiana at 35.0 and UAB at 23.9. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Louisiana's margin lands between -11.4 and +33.6 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Louisiana -10.8 / UAB +10.8 Moneyline: Louisiana -275 / UAB +275 Win probability: Louisiana 73.3% / UAB 26.7% Projected total: 59.1 points Last recalculated: August 30, 2026 at 6:01 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Louisiana: 1463.3, UAB: 1357.1 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Louisiana UAB ----------------- --------- ---- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 travel_fatigue +0.6 +2.6 ncaa_efficiency +0.0 +0.0 blowout_hangover +0.0 +0.0 home_field_vector +6.4 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: UAB 23.9 -- Louisiana 35.0 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th ---------------- ----- ---- ----- ----- ----- Louisiana margin -11.4 -0.8 +10.8 +22.9 +33.6 Total points 37.7 47.6 58.8 70.3 80.4 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: LOUISIANA Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Lunch Winfield QB Passing yards 202.6 118-271 Pass attempts 25.8 17-32 Completions 15.6 10-20 Passing TDs 1.47 77% 1+, 43% 2+ Rushing yards 58.3 18-104 Rushing TDs 0.98 62% 1+, 26% 2+ Shelton Sampson Jr. WR Receiving yards 73.4 38-121 Receptions 3.9 2-5 Receiving TDs 1.13 68% 1+, 31% 2+ Landon Strother WR Receiving yards 26.1 -- Receptions 2.5 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Caden Jensen TE Receiving yards 19.7 -- Receptions 3.1 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.16 15% 1+ Steven Blanco RB Rushing yards 17.8 -- Carries 4.0 -- Rushing TDs 0.23 20% 1+ Jaydon Johnson WR Receiving yards 17.4 -- Receptions 1.6 -- Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Brock Chappell TE Receiving yards 16.0 -- Receptions 2.4 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.21 19% 1+ Maurion Eleam S Tackles 5.2 3-7 Brent Gordon Jr. CB Tackles 5.1 4-7 Maxie Baudoin IV DL Sacks 0.14 13% 1+ Fitzgerald West Jr. DL Sacks 0.12 12% 1+ UAB Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ---------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Ryder Burton QB Passing yards 170.8 86-311 Pass attempts 21.9 13-38 Completions 13.6 8-24 Passing TDs 1.08 66% 1+, 29% 2+ Rushing yards 1.4 -- Rushing TDs 0.31 27% 1+ Ja'Vin Simpkins RB Rushing yards 75.1 34-115 Carries 10.8 5-14 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 20.6 1-33 Receptions 2.5 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Bam McReynolds RB Rushing yards 68.6 28-108 Carries 10.3 4-15 Rushing TDs 0.18 16% 1+ Receiving yards 19.4 -- Receptions 2.2 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Kaleb Brown WR Receiving yards 46.4 11-77 Receptions 2.8 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.36 30% 1+, 5% 2+ Antonio Ferguson TE Receiving yards 25.7 2-38 Receptions 2.2 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Muaaz Byard LB Tackles 5.5 2-9 Darrell Sweeting DB Tackles 4.2 2-6 Elijah Hall DL Sacks 0.80 55% 1+, 19% 2+ J'Quan Mason DE Sacks 0.25 22% 1+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Louisiana recent form: 4-1 over last 5 games UAB recent form: 1-4 over last 5 games Head-to-head history: Season Away Home Winner ------ ----- ------ ------ 2023 UL 41 UAB 21 UL ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10254