James Madison at San Diego State NCAA, Week 3, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 20, 2026 at 2:00 AM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors James Madison by 5.6 points, giving them a 63% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 50.4 combined points, with San Diego State at 22.6 and James Madison at 27.9. Simulating the game 10,000 times, San Diego State's margin lands between -27.5 and +17.1 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: San Diego State +5.6 / James Madison -5.6 Moneyline: San Diego State +169 / James Madison -169 Win probability: San Diego State 37.2% / James Madison 62.8% Projected total: 50.4 points Last recalculated: August 30, 2026 at 6:01 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- San Diego State: 1519.3, James Madison: 1693.8 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor San Diego State James Madison ----------------- --------------- ------------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 travel_fatigue +4.0 +1.5 ncaa_efficiency +0.0 +0.0 blowout_hangover +0.0 +0.0 home_field_vector +16.1 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: James Madison 27.9 -- San Diego State 22.6 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th ---------------------- ----- ----- ---- ---- ----- San Diego State margin -27.5 -17.2 -5.2 +6.6 +17.1 Total points 28.9 39.2 50.5 61.5 71.9 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: SAN DIEGO STATE Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds -------------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Jayden Denegal QB Passing yards 145.5 61-215 Pass attempts 21.4 12-27 Completions 12.3 6-15 Passing TDs 0.72 52% 1+, 16% 2+ Rushing yards 12.7 -- Rushing TDs 0.36 30% 1+, 5% 2+ Lucky Sutton RB Rushing yards 65.2 24-98 Carries 16.0 10-21 Rushing TDs 0.43 35% 1+, 7% 2+ Receiving yards 7.8 -- Receptions 1.4 2-2 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Jordan Napier WR Rushing yards 16.5 -- Rushing TDs 0.21 19% 1+ Receiving yards 65.0 29-137 Receptions 4.4 2-7 Receiving TDs 0.27 23% 1+ Donovan Brown WR Rushing yards 8.6 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 52.3 17-86 Receptions 2.9 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.13 12% 1+ Christian Washington RB Rushing yards 44.5 3-74 Carries 9.1 4-13 Rushing TDs 0.17 16% 1+ Receiving yards 14.8 -- Receptions 2.6 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.17 16% 1+ Jacob Bostick WR Receiving yards 42.9 7-58 Receptions 3.3 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.71 51% 1+, 16% 2+ Jackson Ford TE Receiving yards 9.9 -- Receptions 1.7 -- Receiving TDs 0.15 14% 1+ Jalen Thomeson S Tackles 6.8 4-9 Dalesean Staley S Tackles 6.3 4-9 Kai Wallin DL Sacks 0.17 15% 1+ Amari Comier DL Sacks 0.12 12% 1+ JAMES MADISON Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ----------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Arrington Maiden QB Passing yards 50.3 -- Pass attempts 8.4 -- Completions 5.3 -- Passing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Rushing yards 14.3 -- Rushing TDs 0.15 14% 1+ Braeden Wisloski WR Receiving yards 31.4 -- Receptions 2.7 0-5 Receiving TDs 0.36 31% 1+, 5% 2+ Michael Scott WR Receiving yards 23.9 -- Receptions 2.0 -- Receiving TDs 0.24 22% 1+ George Pettaway RB Rushing yards 21.3 -- Carries 5.7 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 17.7 -- Receptions 2.4 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.12 11% 1+ Za'Ron Collins WR Receiving yards 13.1 -- Receptions 1.5 -- Receiving TDs 0.12 12% 1+ Nakian Jackson LB Tackles 5.8 3-11 Gannon Weathersby LB Tackles 4.8 2-9 DJ Kelly CB Sacks 0.20 18% 1+ Javis Mynatt S Sacks 0.12 12% 1+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ San Diego State recent form: 2-3 over last 5 games James Madison recent form: 4-1 over last 5 games ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10255