North Texas at Texas State NCAA, Week 3, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 19, 2026 at 4:00 PM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Texas State by 2.1 points, giving them a 55% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 91.7 combined points, with Texas State at 47.1 and North Texas at 44.6. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Texas State's margin lands between -19.6 and +24.6 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Texas State -2.1 / North Texas +2.1 Moneyline: Texas State -122 / North Texas +122 Win probability: Texas State 55.0% / North Texas 45.0% Projected total: 91.7 points Last recalculated: August 30, 2026 at 6:01 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Texas State: 1544.3, North Texas: 1604.6 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Texas State North Texas ----------------- ----------- ----------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 travel_fatigue +4.0 +0.6 ncaa_efficiency +0.0 +0.0 blowout_hangover +0.0 +0.0 home_field_vector +11.8 -- consecutive_road -- -15.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: North Texas 44.6 -- Texas State 47.1 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th ------------------ ----- ---- ---- ----- ----- Texas State margin -19.6 -9.5 +2.4 +14.3 +24.6 Total points 70.1 80.5 91.8 102.9 113.3 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: TEXAS STATE Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds -------------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Brad Jackson QB Passing yards 200.0 116-280 Pass attempts 28.5 20-36 Completions 20.1 14-25 Passing TDs 1.55 79% 1+, 46% 2+ Rushing yards 42.5 2-69 Rushing TDs 1.22 70% 1+, 34% 2+ Chris Dawn Jr. WR Receiving yards 72.4 37-126 Receptions 5.5 4-8 Receiving TDs 0.39 32% 1+, 6% 2+ Beau Sparks WR Rushing yards 21.4 -- Rushing TDs 0.16 14% 1+ Receiving yards 71.3 36-121 Receptions 5.5 4-8 Receiving TDs 0.49 39% 1+, 9% 2+ Jaylen Jenkins RB Rushing yards 52.0 11-90 Carries 7.0 2-9 Rushing TDs 0.30 26% 1+ Torrance Burgess Jr. RB Rushing yards 29.1 -- Carries 7.7 2-9 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Kylen Evans WR Receiving yards 23.8 -- Receptions 2.5 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.13 12% 1+ Blake Smith TE Receiving yards 11.9 -- Receptions 2.0 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Ty Stamey TE Receiving yards 10.0 -- Receptions 1.9 0-2 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Javante Mackey LB Tackles 7.1 4-13 Ryan Nolan DB Tackles 6.4 4-8 DonTerry Russell DL Sacks 0.38 31% 1+, 6% 2+ Cole Nilles LB Sacks 0.00 0% 1+ NORTH TEXAS Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds --------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Tayven Jackson QB Passing yards 208.9 125-290 Pass attempts 29.7 21-35 Completions 18.3 12-24 Passing TDs 1.03 64% 1+, 28% 2+ Rushing yards 5.5 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Corri Milliner WR Receiving yards 57.4 22-94 Receptions 4.4 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.60 45% 1+, 12% 2+ Dalton Carnes WR Receiving yards 29.2 -- Receptions 2.0 -- Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Brec Long TE Receiving yards 10.1 -- Receptions 1.3 2-2 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Aaron Alexander LB Tackles 8.0 5-12 David Onuoha DL Tackles 4.2 3-7 Sacks 0.31 27% 1+ Udoka Ezeani DL Sacks 0.38 31% 1+, 6% 2+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Texas State recent form: 4-1 over last 5 games North Texas recent form: 4-1 over last 5 games Head-to-head history: Season Away Home Winner ------ ------ ------- ------ 2024 UNT 28 TXST 30 TXST ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10256