North Dakota State at Sacramento State NCAA, Week 3, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 20, 2026 at 2:30 AM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors North Dakota State by 2.7 points, giving them a 56% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 34.9 combined points, with Sacramento State at 16.3 and North Dakota State at 18.8. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Sacramento State's margin lands between -24.6 and +19.4 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Sacramento State +2.7 / North Dakota State -2.7 Moneyline: Sacramento State +129 / North Dakota State -129 Win probability: Sacramento State 43.7% / North Dakota State 56.3% Projected total: 34.9 points Last recalculated: August 30, 2026 at 6:01 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Sacramento State: 1421.3, North Dakota State: 1528.4 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Sacramento State North Dakota State ----------------- ---------------- ------------------ elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 travel_fatigue -2.0 -0.1 ncaa_efficiency +0.0 +0.0 blowout_hangover +0.0 +0.0 home_field_vector +0.0 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: North Dakota State 18.8 -- Sacramento State 16.3 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th ----------------------- ----- ----- ---- ---- ----- Sacramento State margin -24.6 -14.2 -2.6 +9.2 +19.4 Total points 13.8 23.8 35.2 46.6 56.9 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: SACRAMENTO STATE Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds --------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Carson Conklin QB Passing yards 104.5 20-161 Pass attempts 31.5 23-45 Completions 17.7 12-26 Passing TDs 0.23 20% 1+ Rushing yards -0.7 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Matt Coleman WR Receiving yards 16.1 -- Receptions 3.2 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.10 9% 1+ Boogsie Silvera S Tackles 5.0 2-11 Sacks 0.00 0% 1+ Tim Thomas LB Tackles 4.7 2-7 Sacks 0.00 0% 1+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Sacramento State recent form: 1-4 over last 5 games North Dakota State recent form: 1-1 over last 2 games ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10257