Northern Illinois at Arizona NCAA, Week 3, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 20, 2026 at 2:30 AM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Arizona by 21.2 points, giving them a 88% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 47.7 combined points, with Arizona at 34.5 and Northern Illinois at 13.2. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Arizona's margin lands between -1.0 and +43.5 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Arizona -21.2 / Northern Illinois +21.2 Moneyline: Arizona -727 / Northern Illinois +727 Win probability: Arizona 87.9% / Northern Illinois 12.1% Projected total: 47.7 points Last recalculated: August 30, 2026 at 6:01 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Arizona: 1616.3, Northern Illinois: 1344.2 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Arizona Northern Illinois ----------------- ------- ----------------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 travel_fatigue +1.5 -0.2 ncaa_efficiency +0.0 +0.0 blowout_hangover +0.0 +0.0 home_field_vector +5.8 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Northern Illinois 13.2 -- Arizona 34.5 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th -------------- ---- ---- ----- ----- ----- Arizona margin -1.0 +9.5 +21.3 +33.0 +43.5 Total points 26.5 36.5 47.4 59.0 69.4 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: ARIZONA Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Noah Fifita QB Passing yards 184.4 100-227 Pass attempts 31.9 23-42 Completions 20.2 14-27 Passing TDs 1.62 80% 1+, 48% 2+ Rushing yards 19.5 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Antwan Roberts RB Rushing yards 65.6 24-125 Carries 10.6 5-18 Rushing TDs 0.63 47% 1+, 13% 2+ Receiving yards 25.0 6-46 Receptions 2.7 2-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Kedrick Reescano RB Rushing yards 58.0 17-99 Carries 10.2 4-15 Rushing TDs 1.25 72% 1+, 36% 2+ Receiving yards 14.2 -- Receptions 1.5 2-2 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Cole Rusk TE Receiving yards 39.7 16-73 Receptions 2.7 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.16 15% 1+ Chris Hunter WR Receiving yards 32.7 -- Receptions 3.1 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.12 11% 1+ Giovanni Richardson WR Receiving yards 30.0 -- Receptions 2.4 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.12 11% 1+ Tre Spivey WR Receiving yards 27.6 -- Receptions 2.3 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.17 16% 1+ Taye Brown LB Tackles 8.3 6-11 Lee Molette III S Tackles 6.7 4-11 Everett Roussaw Jr. LB Sacks 0.31 27% 1+ Myron Robinson LB Sacks 0.25 22% 1+ NORTHERN ILLINOIS Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ----------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Brady Davidson QB Passing yards 53.9 -- Pass attempts 18.2 10-30 Completions 8.8 2-14 Passing TDs 0.26 22% 1+ Rushing yards 2.1 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Telly Johnson Jr. RB Rushing yards 49.2 8-90 Carries 10.0 4-14 Rushing TDs 0.26 23% 1+ Receiving yards 14.9 -- Receptions 2.6 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Rickey Taylor Jr. WR Receiving yards 43.5 8-74 Receptions 3.1 3-3 Receiving TDs 0.28 24% 1+ DeAree Rogers WR Receiving yards 36.5 1-67 Receptions 3.4 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.21 19% 1+ Elijah Porter RB Rushing yards 25.7 -- Carries 6.2 0-8 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ George Dimopoulos WR Receiving yards 12.7 -- Receptions 2.4 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Dev'ion Reynolds CB Tackles 3.6 2-7 Jay'shon Thomas DE Tackles 3.1 2-5 Sacks 0.29 25% 1+ Broderick Windham LB Sacks 0.00 0% 1+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Arizona recent form: 4-1 over last 5 games Northern Illinois recent form: 2-3 over last 5 games ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10258