Purdue at UCLA NCAA, Week 3, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 20, 2026 at 3:00 AM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors UCLA by 9.6 points, giving them a 71% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 45.2 combined points, with UCLA at 27.4 and Purdue at 18.0. Simulating the game 10,000 times, UCLA's margin lands between -12.5 and +31.2 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: UCLA -9.6 / Purdue +9.6 Moneyline: UCLA -246 / Purdue +246 Win probability: UCLA 71.1% / Purdue 28.9% Projected total: 45.2 points Last recalculated: August 30, 2026 at 6:01 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- UCLA: 1423.1, Purdue: 1330.1 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor UCLA Purdue ----------------- ----- ------ elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 travel_fatigue +4.0 -1.3 ncaa_efficiency +0.0 +0.0 blowout_hangover -20.0 -20.0 home_field_vector -7.1 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Purdue 18.0 -- UCLA 27.4 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th ------------ ----- ---- ---- ----- ----- UCLA margin -12.5 -1.9 +9.5 +20.9 +31.2 Total points 24.0 34.2 45.3 56.8 66.6 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: UCLA Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds --------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Nico Iamaleava QB Passing yards 188.8 104-245 Pass attempts 28.6 20-34 Completions 18.3 12-23 Passing TDs 1.11 67% 1+, 30% 2+ Rushing yards 43.8 3-93 Rushing TDs 0.33 28% 1+ Wayne Knight RB Rushing yards 106.0 65-179 Carries 14.0 8-17 Rushing TDs 1.07 66% 1+, 29% 2+ Receiving yards 38.7 19-79 Receptions 3.1 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.21 19% 1+ Leland Smith WR Receiving yards 71.8 36-139 Receptions 4.0 2-7 Receiving TDs 0.28 24% 1+ Landon Ellis WR Receiving yards 67.5 32-116 Receptions 3.4 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.42 34% 1+, 7% 2+ Jaivian Thomas RB Rushing yards 57.0 16-88 Carries 10.0 4-15 Rushing TDs 0.21 19% 1+ Receiving yards 19.4 -- Receptions 2.0 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Mikey Matthews WR Receiving yards 38.3 3-56 Receptions 3.2 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.28 24% 1+ Josh Phifer TE Receiving yards 17.3 -- Receptions 1.3 2-2 Receiving TDs 0.19 18% 1+ Brayden Loftin TE Receiving yards 13.8 -- Receptions 1.2 1-1 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Drew Spinogatti LB Tackles 5.8 3-11 Cole Martin DB Tackles 4.9 2-7 Sahir West DL Sacks 0.62 46% 1+, 13% 2+ Aiden Gobaira DL Sacks 0.31 27% 1+ PURDUE Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds --------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Ryan Browne QB Passing yards 136.8 52-224 Pass attempts 28.3 20-46 Completions 16.7 10-27 Passing TDs 0.43 35% 1+, 7% 2+ Rushing yards 15.8 -- Rushing TDs 0.28 25% 1+ Jerrick Gibson RB Rushing yards 67.0 26-111 Carries 10.8 5-19 Rushing TDs 0.37 31% 1+, 5% 2+ Fame Ijeboi RB Rushing yards 63.2 22-107 Carries 10.3 4-15 Rushing TDs 0.37 31% 1+, 5% 2+ Receiving yards 15.5 -- Receptions 2.3 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Asaad Waseem WR Receiving yards 44.7 9-71 Receptions 5.2 3-9 Receiving TDs 0.27 24% 1+ Corey Smith WR Receiving yards 35.8 0-56 Receptions 3.3 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.22 20% 1+ Xavier Townsend WR Rushing yards 4.0 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 30.1 -- Receptions 3.0 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Kylan Fox TE Receiving yards 18.3 -- Receptions 2.6 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.17 16% 1+ Charles Correa LB Tackles 6.6 4-12 John Slaughter DB Tackles 4.9 2-7 Hudson Miller LB Sacks 0.25 22% 1+ Trey Smith DE Sacks 0.20 18% 1+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ UCLA recent form: 0-5 over last 5 games Purdue recent form: 0-5 over last 5 games ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10259