Fresno State at San José State NCAA, Week 3, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 20, 2026 at 3:00 AM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Fresno State by 8.8 points, giving them a 69% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 44.2 combined points, with San José State at 17.9 and Fresno State at 26.5. Simulating the game 10,000 times, San José State's margin lands between -31.3 and +13.7 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: San José State +8.8 / Fresno State -8.8 Moneyline: San José State +227 / Fresno State -227 Win probability: San José State 30.6% / Fresno State 69.4% Projected total: 44.2 points Last recalculated: August 30, 2026 at 6:01 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- San José State: 1317.7, Fresno State: 1532.9 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor San José State Fresno State ----------------- -------------- ------------ elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 travel_fatigue +3.1 +3.6 ncaa_efficiency +0.0 +0.0 blowout_hangover +0.0 +0.0 home_field_vector +8.6 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Fresno State 26.5 -- San José State 17.9 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th --------------------- ----- ----- ---- ---- ----- San José State margin -31.3 -20.5 -8.4 +3.1 +13.7 Total points 23.1 33.2 44.4 55.6 66.0 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: SAN JOSÉ STATE Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Luke Weaver QB Passing yards 121.7 37-222 Pass attempts 25.6 17-46 Completions 15.8 10-29 Passing TDs 1.16 69% 1+, 32% 2+ Rushing yards 20.5 -- Rushing TDs 0.32 28% 1+ Jabari Bates RB Rushing yards 43.2 2-58 Carries 10.4 5-14 Rushing TDs 0.27 24% 1+ Viliami Teu RB Rushing yards 32.1 -- Carries 7.8 2-11 Rushing TDs 0.16 15% 1+ Cooper Hoch WR Receiving yards 19.9 -- Receptions 2.2 -- Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Isaiah Buxton CB Tackles 5.0 4-10 Caleb Womack CB Tackles 4.1 2-8 Etu Finau DL Sacks 0.25 22% 1+ Dylan Lee LB Sacks 0.17 15% 1+ FRESNO STATE Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------ --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Khristian Martin QB Passing yards 93.7 9-136 Pass attempts 6.0 -- Completions 4.5 -- Passing TDs 0.27 24% 1+ Josiah Freeman WR Rushing yards 12.3 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 60.4 25-108 Receptions 4.5 2-7 Receiving TDs 0.51 40% 1+, 9% 2+ Rayshon Luke RB Rushing yards 50.5 9-83 Carries 9.8 4-15 Rushing TDs 0.14 13% 1+ Receiving yards 18.2 -- Receptions 3.0 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.14 13% 1+ Jahlil McClain WR Receiving yards 39.4 4-58 Receptions 2.6 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.14 13% 1+ Bryson Donelson RB Rushing yards 34.2 -- Carries 10.3 4-13 Rushing TDs 0.28 25% 1+ Receiving yards 15.0 -- Receptions 2.5 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Ezekiel Avit WR Receiving yards 31.0 -- Receptions 3.0 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Jake Appleget TE Receiving yards 11.3 -- Receptions 1.7 -- Receiving TDs 0.18 16% 1+ K'vion Thunderbird LB Tackles 5.1 2-7 Tytus Khajavi LB Tackles 4.6 2-6 Sione Noa DL Sacks 0.33 28% 1+ Jahzon Jacks DL Sacks 0.31 27% 1+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ San José State recent form: 0-5 over last 5 games Fresno State recent form: 4-1 over last 5 games Head-to-head history: Season Away Home Winner ------ ------- ------- ------ 2025 FRES 41 SJSU 14 FRES 2024 SJSU 10 FRES 33 FRES 2023 FRES 18 SJSU 42 SJSU ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10260