Liberty at Coastal Carolina NCAA, Week 4, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 24, 2026 at 11:30 PM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Coastal Carolina by 0.6 points, giving them a 51% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 71.9 combined points, with Coastal Carolina at 36.1 and Liberty at 35.5. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Coastal Carolina's margin lands between -21.4 and +23.0 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Coastal Carolina -0.6 / Liberty +0.6 Moneyline: Coastal Carolina -105 / Liberty +105 Win probability: Coastal Carolina 51.3% / Liberty 48.7% Projected total: 71.9 points Last recalculated: September 8, 2026 at 6:02 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Coastal Carolina: 1407.5, Liberty: 1404.4 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Coastal Carolina Liberty ----------------- ---------------- ------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 roster_talent -57.7 -22.8 travel_fatigue +2.8 +3.0 coaching_change -26.8 +9.5 ncaa_efficiency -8.8 -20.0 blowout_hangover +0.0 +0.0 home_field_vector +1.5 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Liberty 35.5 -- Coastal Carolina 36.1 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th ----------------------- ----- ----- ---- ----- ----- Coastal Carolina margin -21.4 -11.1 +0.4 +12.4 +23.0 Total points 49.8 60.4 71.6 83.1 93.4 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: COASTAL CAROLINA Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Deuce Bailey QB Passing yards 221.3 137-409 Pass attempts 29.0 20-42 Completions 17.0 11-25 Passing TDs 1.83 84% 1+, 55% 2+ Rushing yards 32.1 -- Rushing TDs 0.36 31% 1+, 5% 2+ Daelen Alexander RB Rushing yards 52.0 11-99 Carries 9.7 4-14 Rushing TDs 0.39 32% 1+, 6% 2+ Clayton Coppock Jr. WR Rushing yards 13.4 -- Rushing TDs 0.30 26% 1+ Receiving yards 42.1 6-74 Receptions 3.4 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.90 59% 1+, 23% 2+ Tristian Gardner WR Receiving yards 41.5 6-67 Receptions 3.0 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.60 45% 1+, 12% 2+ Jevon Edwards RB Rushing yards 41.2 0-67 Carries 8.1 2-11 Rushing TDs 0.13 12% 1+ Receiving yards 10.7 -- Receptions 1.7 0-2 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Robby Washington WR Rushing yards 5.6 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 30.9 -- Receptions 2.7 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.30 26% 1+ Zach Courtney TE Receiving yards 28.9 5-51 Receptions 2.5 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Se'Von McDowell LB Tackles 5.2 2-8 Ja'Marion Wayne CB Tackles 5.1 4-8 DJ Wesolak DL Sacks 0.50 39% 1+, 9% 2+ Tray Brown LB Sacks 0.25 22% 1+ LIBERTY Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds -------------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Ethan Vasko QB Passing yards 198.0 113-270 Pass attempts 26.9 18-36 Completions 15.5 10-22 Passing TDs 0.70 50% 1+, 16% 2+ Rushing yards 24.3 -- Rushing TDs 0.56 43% 1+, 11% 2+ Kam Davis RB Rushing yards 54.6 14-84 Carries 10.5 5-19 Rushing TDs 0.34 29% 1+ Terron Kellman RB Rushing yards 49.1 8-83 Carries 8.8 3-12 Rushing TDs 0.51 40% 1+, 9% 2+ Receiving yards 21.7 2-35 Receptions 1.4 2-2 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Jamari Person WR Receiving yards 36.9 1-56 Receptions 2.8 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Caleb Ryan TE Receiving yards 24.9 1-54 Receptions 1.9 0-2 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ LaKelsey Johnson Jr. TE Receiving yards 15.5 -- Receptions 2.3 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Derrell Farrar LB Tackles 6.5 4-10 Jeremiah Vessel S Tackles 5.2 3-9 Joe Strickland DL Sacks 0.25 22% 1+ Nathan Pirolli DL Sacks 0.12 12% 1+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Coastal Carolina recent form: 0-5 over last 5 games Liberty recent form: 0-5 over last 5 games ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10261