Army at Temple NCAA, Week 4, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 25, 2026 at 8:00 PM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Army by 4.9 points, giving them a 61% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 45.8 combined points, with Temple at 20.5 and Army at 25.3. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Temple's margin lands between -27.2 and +17.4 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Temple +4.9 / Army -4.9 Moneyline: Temple +159 / Army -159 Win probability: Temple 38.7% / Army 61.3% Projected total: 45.8 points Last recalculated: September 8, 2026 at 6:02 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Temple: 1374.7, Army: 1574.3 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Temple Army ----------------- ------ ------ elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 roster_talent -30.1 -100.0 travel_fatigue +0.0 +0.0 coaching_change +11.8 +11.8 ncaa_efficiency +4.1 +20.0 blowout_hangover +0.0 +0.0 home_field_vector +0.5 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Army 25.3 -- Temple 20.5 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th ------------- ----- ----- ---- ---- ----- Temple margin -27.2 -16.4 -4.8 +7.0 +17.4 Total points 24.3 34.5 45.7 57.2 67.2 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: TEMPLE Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Hunter Smith RB Rushing yards 50.1 9-92 Carries 8.0 2-12 Rushing TDs 0.11 10% 1+ Receiving yards 18.6 -- Receptions 2.5 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Colin Chase WR Rushing yards 10.6 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 40.4 5-56 Receptions 3.9 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.29 25% 1+ Keveun Mason RB Rushing yards 39.2 -- Carries 6.8 1-10 Rushing TDs 0.12 12% 1+ Receiving yards 16.5 -- Receptions 2.3 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ JoJo Bermudez WR Rushing yards 3.5 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 38.2 3-58 Receptions 3.2 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.20 18% 1+ Peter Clarke TE Receiving yards 29.6 6-51 Receptions 2.9 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.52 40% 1+, 10% 2+ Ryder Kusch TE Receiving yards 10.4 -- Receptions 2.1 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.45 36% 1+, 7% 2+ Curly Ordonez LB Tackles 6.7 4-11 Sacks 0.12 12% 1+ Avery Powell S Tackles 4.9 2-8 JaMair Diaz LB Sacks 0.25 22% 1+ ARMY Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------ --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Cale Hellums QB Passing yards 100.6 16-142 Pass attempts 10.6 2-14 Completions 6.6 0-9 Passing TDs 0.41 34% 1+, 6% 2+ Rushing yards 89.1 49-134 Rushing TDs 1.92 85% 1+, 57% 2+ Godspower Nwawuihe RB Rushing yards 59.2 18-157 Carries 9.3 4-15 Rushing TDs 0.64 47% 1+, 14% 2+ Brady Anderson WR Receiving yards 56.1 20-91 Receptions 2.5 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.34 28% 1+ Carson Smith RB Rushing yards 37.3 -- Carries 7.5 2-10 Rushing TDs 0.32 27% 1+ Samari Howard WR Rushing yards 13.7 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 30.4 -- Receptions 2.2 -- Receiving TDs 0.17 16% 1+ Parker Poloskey TE Receiving yards 27.5 4-38 Receptions 2.1 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.43 35% 1+, 7% 2+ Tobi Olawole WR Receiving yards 13.1 -- Receptions 1.3 2-2 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Stephen Nnadozie S Tackles 3.6 2-6 Jaydan Mayes CB Tackles 3.6 2-6 Cole Searight DB Sacks 0.25 22% 1+ Jack Bousum DL Sacks 0.25 22% 1+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Temple recent form: 1-4 over last 5 games Army recent form: 3-2 over last 5 games Head-to-head history: Season Away Home Winner ------ ------- ------- ------ 2025 TEM 13 ARMY 14 ARMY 2024 ARMY 42 TEM 14 ARMY ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10262