Navy at UAB NCAA, Week 4, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 25, 2026 at 11:00 PM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Navy by 15.5 points, giving them a 81% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 67.2 combined points, with UAB at 25.9 and Navy at 41.3. Simulating the game 10,000 times, UAB's margin lands between -38.0 and +6.6 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: UAB +15.5 / Navy -15.5 Moneyline: UAB +427 / Navy -427 Win probability: UAB 19.0% / Navy 81.0% Projected total: 67.2 points Last recalculated: September 8, 2026 at 6:02 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- UAB: 1344.2, Navy: 1640.9 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor UAB Navy ----------------- ----- ------ elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 roster_talent -38.8 -100.0 travel_fatigue +2.6 +0.0 coaching_change -26.8 +11.8 ncaa_efficiency -20.0 +20.0 blowout_hangover -20.0 +0.0 home_field_vector +14.2 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Navy 41.3 -- UAB 25.9 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th ------------ ----- ----- ----- ---- ---- UAB margin -38.0 -27.2 -15.2 -3.5 +6.6 Total points 45.8 56.0 67.3 78.3 88.7 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: UAB Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ---------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Ryder Burton QB Passing yards 164.2 80-293 Pass attempts 22.5 14-39 Completions 13.8 8-24 Passing TDs 1.04 65% 1+, 28% 2+ Rushing yards 8.8 -- Rushing TDs 0.39 32% 1+, 6% 2+ Kaleb Brown WR Receiving yards 39.8 4-66 Receptions 2.7 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.31 26% 1+ Ja'Vin Simpkins RB Rushing yards 36.8 -- Carries 10.6 5-14 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 10.9 -- Receptions 2.5 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Bam McReynolds RB Rushing yards 36.4 -- Carries 10.6 5-15 Rushing TDs 0.13 12% 1+ Receiving yards 12.1 -- Receptions 2.2 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Antonio Ferguson TE Receiving yards 35.7 12-53 Receptions 2.2 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Muaaz Byard LB Tackles 5.7 3-9 Darrell Sweeting DB Tackles 4.5 2-6 Elijah Hall DL Sacks 0.80 55% 1+, 19% 2+ J'Quan Mason DE Sacks 0.25 22% 1+ NAVY Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ---------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Braxton Woodson QB Passing yards 55.3 -- Pass attempts 13.1 4-17 Completions 4.9 -- Passing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Rushing yards 41.4 1-100 Rushing TDs 1.07 66% 1+, 29% 2+ Luke Hutchison WR Receiving yards 47.1 12-80 Receptions 1.3 2-2 Receiving TDs 1.18 69% 1+, 33% 2+ Joshua Guerin WR Receiving yards 35.8 0-54 Receptions 1.3 2-2 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Giuseppe Sessi S Tackles 7.4 5-10 Coleman Cauley LB Tackles 7.3 4-11 Griffen Willis DT Sacks 0.31 27% 1+ Xavyer Arrington DL Sacks 0.17 15% 1+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ UAB recent form: 1-4 over last 5 games Navy recent form: 4-1 over last 5 games Head-to-head history: Season Away Home Winner ------ ------- ------- ------ 2025 UAB 24 NAVY 38 NAVY 2024 NAVY 41 UAB 18 NAVY 2023 UAB 6 NAVY 31 NAVY ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10263