Northwestern at Indiana NCAA, Week 4, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 26, 2026 at 12:00 AM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Indiana by 29.6 points, giving them a 94% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 42.8 combined points, with Indiana at 36.1 and Northwestern at 6.5. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Indiana's margin lands between +7.1 and +51.9 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Indiana -29.6 / Northwestern +29.6 Moneyline: Indiana -1600 / Northwestern +1600 Win probability: Indiana 94.1% / Northwestern 5.9% Projected total: 42.8 points Last recalculated: September 8, 2026 at 6:02 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Indiana: 1869.7, Northwestern: 1498.9 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Indiana Northwestern ----------------- ------- ------------ elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 roster_talent +37.2 +12.0 travel_fatigue +4.0 +0.0 coaching_change +9.5 +11.8 ncaa_efficiency +20.0 +20.0 blowout_hangover +0.0 +0.0 home_field_vector +18.9 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Northwestern 6.5 -- Indiana 36.1 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th -------------- ---- ----- ----- ----- ----- Indiana margin +7.1 +18.0 +29.6 +41.4 +51.9 Total points 21.1 31.4 42.8 53.9 64.0 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: INDIANA Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds -------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Josh Hoover QB Passing yards 225.4 141-282 Pass attempts 31.4 22-44 Completions 20.4 14-28 Passing TDs 1.88 85% 1+, 56% 2+ Rushing yards 4.0 -- Rushing TDs 0.10 10% 1+ Charlie Becker WR Receiving yards 63.1 27-105 Receptions 3.9 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.52 40% 1+, 10% 2+ Lee Beebe Jr. RB Rushing yards 57.9 17-91 Carries 11.6 6-14 Rushing TDs 0.34 29% 1+ Turbo Richard RB Rushing yards 56.7 16-104 Carries 12.0 6-17 Rushing TDs 0.89 59% 1+, 22% 2+ Receiving yards 15.7 -- Receptions 2.5 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Shazz Preston WR Receiving yards 50.2 14-95 Receptions 3.2 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.31 27% 1+ Nick Marsh WR Rushing yards 11.1 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 50.0 14-84 Receptions 4.5 2-7 Receiving TDs 0.41 34% 1+, 7% 2+ Rolijah Hardy LB Tackles 7.3 4-10 Isaiah Jones LB Tackles 5.5 2-9 Stephen Daley DL Sacks 0.50 39% 1+, 9% 2+ Tyrique Tucker DL Sacks 0.50 39% 1+, 9% 2+ NORTHWESTERN Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ----------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Nicco Marchiol QB Passing yards 151.8 67-185 Pass attempts 26.5 18-28 Completions 17.1 11-20 Passing TDs 0.21 19% 1+ Rushing yards 5.5 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Griffin Wilde WR Receiving yards 53.5 18-85 Receptions 4.9 3-8 Receiving TDs 0.30 26% 1+ Hayden Eligon II WR Receiving yards 46.3 11-86 Receptions 3.8 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.05 5% 1+ Caleb Komolafe RB Rushing yards 45.3 4-70 Carries 13.8 8-18 Rushing TDs 0.69 50% 1+, 15% 2+ Receiving yards 11.2 -- Receptions 2.6 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.10 10% 1+ Joseph Himon II RB Rushing yards 32.1 -- Carries 10.3 4-17 Rushing TDs 0.08 7% 1+ Receiving yards 10.3 -- Receptions 2.5 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Ricky Ahumaraeze WR Receiving yards 30.5 -- Receptions 1.8 -- Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Alex Honig TE Receiving yards 18.8 -- Receptions 1.8 0-2 Receiving TDs 0.20 18% 1+ Robert Fitzgerald DB Tackles 7.6 6-12 Braydon Brus LB Tackles 7.2 4-11 Migo Jackson DL Sacks 0.33 28% 1+ Michael Kilbane DL Sacks 0.31 27% 1+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Indiana recent form: 5-0 over last 5 games Northwestern recent form: 2-3 over last 5 games Head-to-head history: Season Away Home Winner ------ ----- ----- ------ 2024 IU 41 NU 24 IU ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10264